779
FXUS62 KILM 251856
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
156 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1)BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED
TO CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- 2)BENEFICIAL RAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...WITHIN BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN US, A STREAM OF VORTICITY IMPULSES IS EXPECTED
TO PRECEDE A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. NEAR
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD
GRADUALLY. HI-RES GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST THESE IMPULSES MAY HELP
TO SPUR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND
NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A BAND OF STEADY RAIN
HOLDS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THIS BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WITH PERHAPS
SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (DUE TO
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY) WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP A BIT
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. RAINFALL THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS NEAR THE COAST
AND 0.25-0.50" INLAND, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
0.5-0.75" ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY
THE BAND OF RAIN DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD, SO THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS IN ANY GIVEN SPOT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BENEFICIAL RAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BENEFICIAL IN THAT MOST OF THE AREA IS IN D1/MODERATE DROUGHT
STATUS WITH A SMALL PART OF THE AREA IN D2/SEVERE DROUGHT. A
FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHEARED VORTICITY WILL CAUSE A FLAT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE
BOUNDARY FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE ISN'T IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN
QPF AS THIS OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO, THE WRF APPEARS TO BE THE DRY OUTLIER AND
SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE WETTER NBM/GFS SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT.
BREAKING THE GFS PRECIP INTO IT'S STABLE VS CONVECTIVE
COMPONENTS SHOWS HIGHER, MORE REALISTIC LOOKING AMOUNTS COMING
FROM THE FORMER. AND WITH A CELL MOTION TO THE EAST WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ONLY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD TRAINING ECHOES ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER NUMBERS. AREAL AVERAGE QPF NOW CLOSER TO AN
INCH MOST AREAS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONTINUES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY MOISTENS UP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE, BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT AT AROUND 10 KTS. SOON AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY,
GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP AGAIN AS FAST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE BEGINS TO MIX DOWN. LLWS HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE 30
KT THRESHOLD WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT FROM ABOUT 05Z THROUGH 13Z AS
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS HOLD AROUND 10KTS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES TO AROUND 35-40 KTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TERMINALS NEAR THE
COAST. CONFIDENCE IN ACTUALLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE THRESHOLD IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR VIS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, PROMPTING PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THIS THREAT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS
THROUGH. VFR RETURNS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT GETS A SQUEEZE FROM AN APPROACHING FRONT,
THOUGH NOT LONG THEREAFTER IT WILL RELAX TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE FRONT EASES THE GRADIENT. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY LEADING TO A NEAR 180
DEGREE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. WAVE FACES WILL STEEPEN FROM THE
VEER EVEN AS THE LIGHTER GRADIENT AND DECAYING SWELL CAUSES OVERALL
DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT TO ABATE. NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT GETS A SQUEEZE FROM AN APPROACHING FRONT,
THOUGH NOT LONG THEREAFTER IT WILL RELAX TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE FRONT EASES THE GRADIENT. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY LEADING TO A NEAR 180
DEGREE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. WAVE FACES WILL STEEPEN FROM THE
VEER EVEN AS THE LIGHTER GRADIENT AND DECAYING SWELL CAUSES OVERALL
DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT TO ABATE. NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/ABW
DISCUSSION...MBB/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MBB/ABW
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