728
FXUS62 KILM 261018
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
518 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT DRAPED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
BY ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY. PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROMPT PERIODS OF MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL, INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL RAIN
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE MOST LIKELY ABOUT 0.5-1" BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO ~2" ARE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN SC). ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS, INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO MEAGER FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
NC. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS FOR LBT/FLO DEVELOPING THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THURS AFTN WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS INTO THURS EVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR DOMINATE
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING DOMINANT LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LIFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z
INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF THE SW UP TO 25 KT. THERE IS A LLJ
WITH SW WINDS 40+ KT THAT WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO A LLWS
THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD, SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR RETURNS BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA WATERS BY FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4 TO 7 FT. A
LIMITED LONGER PERIOD ENE SWELL WILL MIX IN.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH, WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY STARTING AS
EARLY AS SUN NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BUT THE
RISK FOR A GALE WARNING REMAINS PRETTY LOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/RJB
DISCUSSION...RGZ/RJB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page