253
FXUS62 KILM 261852
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
152 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, BUT
TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE BROKEN NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
2) COOLER WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN RATHER LOW THUS FAR, BUT
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND BETTER SATURATION SHOULD INCREASE
RATES OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE WEATHER
GRIDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR
BUILDING IN AHEAD OF AN CAD WEDGE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE, BECOMING MORE VARIABLE IN COVERAGE. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVOLVE INTO A COMBO DRIZZLE AND PASSING SHOWER ON
FRIDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. PRECIP HAS NOT BEEN AS UNIFORM
AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, THEREFORE BREAKS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED LESS RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG (~1040MB)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME, A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SE COAST, TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT LOCALLY.
A TRAILING LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
ANA- FRONTAL PRECIP INTO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY, WITH LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK. THE COMBINATION
OF THE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
CAD COULD SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE VFR
FOR THE LARGE PART, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS, MVFR SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT. WHILE WE MAINTAIN WARM
ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, LAMP PROBS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IFR IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
OCCURRING, BUT I USED THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR THE TAFS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR CORRESPOND WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SOLID IFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
A LITTLE TOUGHER TO PIN-DOWN LLWS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA PUSHES THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST... FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD, SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR RETURNS BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER THE GUSTINESS SUBSIDES. EXPECT HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT; NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO IMPROVE WITH THE SHIFTING
FETCH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN IT'S
WAKE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY NE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG (~1040MB) HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST, TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 25-35 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. A FEW
GALE- FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OVERALL RISK FOR A
GALE WARNING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...21/CBL
DISCUSSION...21/CBL
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/CBL
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