042
FXUS62 KILM 270041
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
741 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT THAT MAY LAST WELL INTO
FRIDAY. THIS GENERALLY WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CFP, WITH IT
PROGGED TO DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, CROSSING THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY FRI. SHOWERY PCPN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND RAINS IN ITS
WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THE TREND RESULTS IN THE
NEED TO UP THE FOG COVERAGE AND/OR INTENSITY AFTER FROPA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
152 PM EST CHANGE...
MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
BUT TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE BROKEN NATURE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
2) COOLER WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN RATHER LOW THUS FAR, BUT
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND BETTER SATURATION SHOULD INCREASE
RATES OVERNIGHT. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE WEATHER
GRIDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR
BUILDING IN AHEAD OF AN CAD WEDGE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE, BECOMING MORE VARIABLE IN COVERAGE. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVOLVE INTO A COMBO DRIZZLE AND PASSING SHOWER ON
FRIDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. PRECIP HAS NOT BEEN AS UNIFORM
AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, THEREFORE BREAKS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED LESS RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG (~1040MB)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME, A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SE COAST, TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT LOCALLY.
A TRAILING LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
POST FRONTAL PRECIP INTO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY, WITH LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK. THE COMBINATION
OF THE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
CAD COULD SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI, CROSSING
LBT 1ST FOLLOWED BY ILM AND FLO AND FINALLY PUSHING THRU CRE
AND MYR. AHEAD OF THE CF, EXPECT PERIODIC SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
VFR DOMINATING EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR FROM THE SHOWER AND FOG
ACTIVITY. AFTER THE CFP, LOOK FOR OVERRUNNING LOW CLOUDS
DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. IN ADDITION, REDUCED VSBY FROM
FOG AND/OR INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THAT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS. BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM PCPN
WILL CONTINUE THRU 00Z 2/28.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND FINALLY
LIFTS NE-WARD OUT TO SEA. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SAT
AND CONTINUING THRU SUN. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS A CFP OCCURS, WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH VFR
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MON THRU TUE.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER THE GUSTINESS SUBSIDES. EXPECT HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT; NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO IMPROVE WITH THE SHIFTING
FETCH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN IT'S
WAKE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY NE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG (~1040MB) HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST, TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 25-35 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. A FEW
GALE- FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OVERALL RISK FOR A
GALE WARNING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...21/CBL
DISCUSSION...21/CBL
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...21/CBL
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