068
FXUS62 KILM 270708
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
208 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TWEAKED THE LATEST RAINFALL TOTALS LOWER FROM OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO ONLY MAKE
A SLIGHT DENT INTO THE ONGOING D1 MODERATE TO D2 SEVERE DROUGHT
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC.
2) UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
TO ONLY MAKE A SLIGHT DENT INTO THE ONGOING D1 MODERATE TO D2
SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC.
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT DRAPED ENE-WSW ACROSS THE ILM CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL SLOWLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS TO THE SE-SSE
TODAY, PUSHING OFF THE MAINLAND BY MIDDAY AND TEMPORARY STALLING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE COASTS THIS EVENING. FORCING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TO KEEP
THE THREAT OF PCPN ONGOING UP UNTIL THE CFP. THIS WILL BE OUR
BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WITH SHOWERY PCPN ACTIVITY.
LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT, PCPN BECOMES MORE STRATIFORM AND
LIGHT IN NATURE, WITH MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE, WITH BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. DECENT 5H S/W
TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THAT
MAY THROW BACK SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
AS IT BOOKS OFF TO THE NE, AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT THRU SAT MORNING WILL RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.50 WITH ISOLATED HIER AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ONLY MAKE A VERY
SLIGHT DENT WITHIN THE ONGOING D1 AND D2 DROUGHT ACROSS THE FA
AS THE 2026 GROWING SEASON APPROACHES. BARE IN MIND, THE LATEST
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PCPN OUTLOOKS ONLY EXHIBIT BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO FRI,
CROSSING LBT 1ST FOLLOWED BY ILM AND FLO AND FINALLY PUSHING
THRU CRE AND MYR. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT VFR, EXCEPT
PERIODIC MVFR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM REDUCED VSBY FROM
THE PCPN AND FOG ACTIVITY. AFTER THE CFP, LOOK FOR OVERRUNNING
LOW CLOUDS DROPPING THRU MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES, DAYTIME MORNING
FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND MIDDAY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
IN ADDITION, REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG AND/OR INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL FURTHER AID IFR CONDITIONS. BOTH LOW
CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM PCPN WILL CONTINUE THRU 06Z 2/28 WITH THE
PCPN ENDING INLAND TERMINALS BUT PERSISTING AT THE COAST.
THE SFC PG HAS RELAXED TO THE POINT WHERE SW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME NNE-ENE 5 TO 7 KT
AFTER THE CFP AND PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND FINALLY LIFTS NE-
WARD OUT TO SEA SAT. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THRU SUN. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS A CFP OCCURS, FOLLOWED BY VFR AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NE MON THRU TUE.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SFC PG CONTINUES TO RELAX AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES, RESULTING IN SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT
OR LESS. THIS RELAXED GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE CFP WILL OCCUR DURING DAYLIGHT FRI,
WITH SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING N-NE AROUND 10 KT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
THIS EVENING AND RACE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND BY
SUNRISE SAT. THIS MAY RESULT IN NE WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS HAVE ALREADY RESPONDED BY SUBSIDING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE THOSE SW WINDS BEGAN DIMINISHING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING, DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT,
BUT MAY INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR THE NC WATERS DUE TO THE
DEEPENING BUT DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BY SAT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
TO DOMINATE WITH A FRESH OR PSEUDO SE-S SWELL AT 6 TO 7 SECOND
PERIODS DOMINATING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS GROW LIGHT ON SATURDAY AS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A STRONGER HIGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LATTER LEADS TO BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SETS UP A WEDGE SETTING UP OVER LAND WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. THIS
WILL SET UP A FAIRLY LOCALIZED BUT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PRESENT SOME VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WINDS RAMP UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS FIRST
WITH SEAS FOLLOWING SUIT. THE AGITATED WIND WAVES WILL NOT BE
ALONE AS THE STRONG HIGH PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH (CROSSING
NEW ENGLAND STATES) ESTABLISHES A LONG EASTERLY FETCH INTO THE
CAROLINAS THAT WILL BRING INCREASING SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/MBB
DISCUSSION...DCH/MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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