193
FXUS62 KILM 271201
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
701 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO ONLY MAKE
A SLIGHT DENT INTO THE ONGOING D1 MODERATE TO D2 SEVERE DROUGHT
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC.
2) UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
TO ONLY MAKE A SLIGHT DENT INTO THE ONGOING D1 MODERATE TO D2
SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC.
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT DRAPED ENE-WSW ACROSS THE ILM CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL SLOWLY MAKE SOME PROGRESS TO THE SE-SSE
TODAY, PUSHING OFF THE MAINLAND BY MIDDAY AND TEMPORARY STALLING
JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE COASTS THIS EVENING. FORCING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TO KEEP
THE THREAT OF PCPN ONGOING UP UNTIL THE CFP. THIS WILL BE OUR
BEST BET FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WITH SHOWERY PCPN ACTIVITY.
LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT, PCPN BECOMES MORE STRATIFORM AND
LIGHT IN NATURE, WITH MAINLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE, WITH BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. DECENT 5H S/W
TROF TO PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THAT
MAY THROW BACK SOME PCPN ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES
AS IT BOOKS OFF TO THE NE, AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT THRU SAT MORNING WILL RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.50 WITH ISOLATED HIER AMOUNTS TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ONLY MAKE A VERY
SLIGHT DENT WITHIN THE ONGOING D1 AND D2 DROUGHT ACROSS THE FA
AS THE 2026 GROWING SEASON APPROACHES. BARE IN MIND, THE LATEST
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PCPN OUTLOOKS ONLY EXHIBIT BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW HAS
MAINTAINED VFR OVERNIGHT, BUT AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY THIS
MORNING, IFR/LIFR SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS
WILL SOLIDIFY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END THIS EVENING, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. VFR
RETURNS TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SFC PG CONTINUES TO RELAX AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES, RESULTING IN SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT
OR LESS. THIS RELAXED GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE CFP WILL OCCUR DURING DAYLIGHT FRI,
WITH SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING N-NE AROUND 10 KT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
THIS EVENING AND RACE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND BY
SUNRISE SAT. THIS MAY RESULT IN NE WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS HAVE ALREADY RESPONDED BY SUBSIDING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE THOSE SW WINDS BEGAN DIMINISHING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING, DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT,
BUT MAY INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR THE NC WATERS DUE TO THE
DEEPENING BUT DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BY SAT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
TO DOMINATE WITH A FRESH OR PSEUDO SE-S SWELL AT 6 TO 7 SECOND
PERIODS DOMINATING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS GROW LIGHT ON SATURDAY AS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A STRONGER HIGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LATTER LEADS TO BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SETS UP A WEDGE SETTING UP OVER LAND WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. THIS
WILL SET UP A FAIRLY LOCALIZED BUT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PRESENT SOME VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WINDS RAMP UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS FIRST
WITH SEAS FOLLOWING SUIT. THE AGITATED WIND WAVES WILL NOT BE
ALONE AS THE STRONG HIGH PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH (CROSSING
NEW ENGLAND STATES) ESTABLISHES A LONG EASTERLY FETCH INTO THE
CAROLINAS THAT WILL BRING INCREASING SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/MBB
DISCUSSION...DCH/MBB
AVIATION...DCH/21
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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