062
FXUS62 KILM 271734
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1234 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS ON SATURDAY.
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
3) SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUAL
CLEARING OCCURS ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE BOUNDARY
WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL LEAD TO INCREASED NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IN TURN, SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENE SWELL. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NC COASTAL WATERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO, FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD AID IN SOME SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, PARTICULARLY INLAND, WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
OFFSHORE RIDGE EDGING WESTWARD COULD LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE FOR OUR
AREA, WHICH WOULD LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. SOME VFR HAS ATTEMPTED TO HANG
AROUND, BUT IS BEING OVERPOWERED AS COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGS CIGS TO NEAR MINIMUMS. THE VARIABLE CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
200 FEET AND 8,000 FT AGL MAY CONTINUE FOR THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END THIS EVENING, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. VFR
RETURNS TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPRESSED AND SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET.
SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 3 FEET TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW RUSHES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS
WEAKEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS
AROUND 2 FT, COMBINATION OF SE SWELL AND NE SWELL. HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. NE WINDS PEAK DURING THE
DAY MONDAY, SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS,
WITH SEAS 5-7 FT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS TURN
ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHEAST NC
WATERS LATE TUESDAY, BEFORE SEAS LOWER TO 3-4 FT FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...VAO/21
DISCUSSION...VAO/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...VAO/21
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