351
FXUS62 KILM 280023
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS ON SATURDAY.
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
3) SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUAL
CLEARING OCCURS ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE BOUNDARY
WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL LEAD TO INCREASED NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IN TURN, SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENE SWELL. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NC COASTAL WATERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO, FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD AID IN SOME SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, PARTICULARLY INLAND, WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
OFFSHORE RIDGE EDGING WESTWARD COULD LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE FOR OUR
AREA, WHICH WOULD LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT OFF THE NC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD, SWEEPING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WELL AWAY FROM THE NC/SC COAST SAT. THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. BUT
OVERALL, WILL OBSERVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM LOW CEILINGS
TONIGHT THAT WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR MIDDAY SAT...AND VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING SAT AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT
WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR FOG THAT WILL WORSEN TOWARD/AROUND
SUNRISE TO IFR FOG, POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE ACROSS LOCAL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO DOMINATE SAT EVENING FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG EARLY SUN MORNING.
VFR DOMINATES SUN WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON DUE TO A CFP. VFR RETURNS TUE INTO WED.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPRESSED AND SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET.
SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 3 FEET TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW RUSHES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS
WEAKEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS
AROUND 2 FT, COMBINATION OF SE SWELL AND NE SWELL. HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. NE WINDS PEAK DURING THE
DAY MONDAY, SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS,
WITH SEAS 5-7 FT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS TURN
ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHEAST NC
WATERS LATE TUESDAY, BEFORE SEAS LOWER TO 3-4 FT FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...VAO/21
DISCUSSION...VAO/21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...VAO/21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page