854
FXUS62 KILM 280605
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
105 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS OF FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING.
- 2) COOL START TO THE WEEK, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
- 3) SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND KICKS IN BY THURSDAY, SCATTERED
STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AREAS OF FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE
OR LESS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING.
A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AREAS OF FOG EXISTS FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SHALLOW, WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW INTERACTING
WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COOL START TO THE WEEK, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH STARTS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT,
SLIPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. THIS CREATES A SOLID CAD
WEDGE SETUP, BRINGING IN A BRIEF COOLING TREND FOR THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WEDGE APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S, AND LOWS THAT
NIGHT DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BY TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND FORCING IN THE NORTHEAST TRIES TO
KICK THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE, WHICH GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE
WEDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AT 850 MB TO POKE UP
A BIT MORE AS IT ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE, CREATING MORE OF AN ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SET UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE COASTAL LOCALES WILL TRY TO WARM UP
WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW, WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. COULD SEE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND
TO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE, THOUGH.
FORECAST GUIDANCE LOVES TO BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED, SO TEMPS AT THE COAST MAY ACTUALLY BE ON THE COOLER WHEN
THIS IS ALL SAID AND DONE.
IN THE MIDST OF ALL THIS, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS QUICKLY PICK UP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS, CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS. SEE THE
EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND KICKS IN BY THURSDAY,
SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE AT 850 MB CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE, BUT THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF IT HAS NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE CAROLINAS.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXPANDS AND AMPLIFIES BY THE
TIME IT MOVES OVER FLORIDA AND THE CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK.
WITH VERTICAL CONTINUITY IN PLACE, THIS ALLOWS SOME CONSIDERABLE
WARMING TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T HAVE A PROBLEM REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES
INLAND, WHILE THE BEACHES HIT COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S. LOOKS LIKE ALL RECORDS ARE SAFE HERE, BUT THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL REGISTER SOME 12-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND
MIMIC MORE MID-LATE APRIL THAN EARLY MARCH. THERMAL PROFILES
START LOOKING A BIT FAMILIAR, AS THIS WARMTH TRIGGERS
INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. ANOTHER OLD FRIEND IN
THE SEABREEZE WILL SHOW UP, GIVEN THE STOUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BETWEEN AIR AND WATER (CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURES HANGING NEAR
50 DEGREES). METEOROLOGICAL SPRING INDEED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIFR. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY
16-18Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LINGERING ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN SUSTAINED 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FURTHER EAST THROUGH TODAY, ALLOWING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR
LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY DIRECTION,
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RATHER TAME START, WITH WINDS
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT. THIS
CHANGES RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. VERY STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
STARTS COMING IN ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
REACHING THE SC COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WON'T HAVE A PROBLEM REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT, STICKING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO GUST UP TO 30 KTS, AND MAY EVEN HIT GALE
FORCE AT TIMES. IT DOESN'T LOOK QUITE CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR A
GALE WATCH OR WARNING, BUT WE'LL SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF
FORECAST CYCLES SHAPE UP. SEAS GET UP TOWARDS 4-5 FT AT THE
COAST OVER THE SC WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER, POSSIBLY REACHING TOWARDS 6 FT UP TOWARDS SURF CITY, NC.
AS YOU HEAD OUT TOWARDS 20 NM OFFSHORE, SEAS ARE A BIT MORE
UNIFORM AT 6-7 FT. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN, BREAKING THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VEERING THEM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS DECREASE CONSIDERABLY DOWN TO 5-10 KTS TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE A BIT MORE STUBBORN TO COME
DOWN, HANGING NEAR 3- 5 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CRM
KEY MESSAGES...CRM/IGB
DISCUSSION...CRM/IGB
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...CRM/IGB
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