034
FXUS62 KILM 281811
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
111 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY DENSE IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
3) COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL LEAD TO A COOL START TO THE WORK
WEEK.
4) SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, POTENTIALLY DENSE IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS
WHILE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER JUST OFF THE COAST,
CONTINUED WEAK LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND WET SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. MANY PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S, WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL LEAD TO A COOL
START TO THE WORK WEEK.
CAD WEDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT, LEADING TO DAYTIME TEMPS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WHILE MONDAY NIGHT LOWS
ARE NEAR CLIMO DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, LEADING TO
WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH PRODUCING A
FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE WEDGE
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVERAGE HANGS AROUND FOR MOST OF TUESDAY,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MUCH LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, LATE WEEK.
WAA AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S, WILL SEE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY. WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THURSDAY, THE
INVERSION WEAKENS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES PRESENT.
SEA BREEZE WILL CERTAINLY BE PRESENT WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPS, WHICH WILL AID IN PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE
LINGERING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT BETWEEN
SAT 21Z TO SUN 00Z. HOWEVER, SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST
LONGER GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND WET SOILS FROM
RECENT RAINFALL, WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INLAND AT KFLO
AND KLBT, WHERE VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MORE IN THE MVFR RANGE.
FOG SHOULD ERODE AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 12 TO 15Z SUNDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING LIFT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF CEILINGS, SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA, ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AT 5-10KTS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT SUNDAY, VEERING TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH WINDS 20-25 KTS, GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS, AND SEAS 5-7 FT DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE MONDAY, AND WHILE WINDS TURN ONSHORE AND LOWER TO
AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, 6 FOOT SEAS LINGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST NC COASTAL WATERS.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 3-4 FT SEAS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...VAO/CBL
DISCUSSION...VAO/CBL
AVIATION...CBL
MARINE...VAO/CBL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page