612
FXUS62 KILM 282330
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
630 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. IN
ADDITION, RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NC COASTAL
WATERS. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN INCLUDE THE REMAINING SC COASTAL
WATERS AS NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SINCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP THERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY DENSE IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
3) COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL LEAD TO A COOL START TO THE WORK
WEEK.
4) SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, POTENTIALLY DENSE IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS
WHILE SOME CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER JUST OFF THE COAST,
CONTINUED WEAK LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND WET SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. MANY PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S, WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL LEAD TO A COOL
START TO THE WORK WEEK.
CAD WEDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT, LEADING TO DAYTIME TEMPS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WHILE MONDAY NIGHT LOWS
ARE NEAR CLIMO DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, LEADING TO
WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH PRODUCING A
FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE WEDGE
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVERAGE HANGS AROUND FOR MOST OF TUESDAY,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MUCH LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, LATE WEEK.
WAA AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S, WILL SEE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY. WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THURSDAY, THE
INVERSION WEAKENS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES PRESENT.
SEA BREEZE WILL CERTAINLY BE PRESENT WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPS, WHICH WILL AID IN PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PESKY AREA OF STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KFLO
INITIALLY, BUT THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH AWAY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR KFLO. POTENTIAL EXISTS
AT KLBT TOO, AND TO A LESSER EXTEND AT KILM. KCRE/KMYR WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CHANCE
FOR IFR, ESPECIALLY AT KMYR. ANY FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 13 TO 15Z SUNDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING LIFT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF CEILINGS, SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA, ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE OVER THE WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AT 5-10KTS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT SUNDAY, VEERING TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY VERY EARLY MONDAY FOR THE NC WATERS WITH WINDS
20-25 KTS, GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS, AND SEAS 5-7 FT DURING THE DAY.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MONDAY, AND WHILE WINDS TURN
ONSHORE AND LOWER TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, 6
FOOT SEAS LINGER INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST NC
COASTAL WATERS. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK, WITH SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 3-4 FT SEAS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...VAO/CBL
DISCUSSION...VAO/CBL
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...VAO/CBL
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