151
FXUS62 KILM 010627
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST SC AND
ROBESON COUNTY, NC. USE CAUTION DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOW VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED,
WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND USE FOG LIGHTS IF AVAILABLE.
- 2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM.
- 3) COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE CREATES CHILLY START TO THE WEEK.
- 4) SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY WEDNESDAY, CONTINUES ALL WEEK LONG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED, WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. DRIVERS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE FOG LIGHTS IF AVAILABLE.
VISIBILITIES HAVE GONE DOWN RAPIDLY TONIGHT, QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED, MAINLY OVER NE SC. BASED ON THE PATTERN, THESE LOWER
VISIBILITIES SHOULD EXPAND TOWARDS THE NE SC COAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW CLOUDS THERE CONTINUE TO ERODE. ALL OUR NE SC COUNTIES AS WELL
AS ROBESON COUNTY HAVE BEEN ADDED TO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE,
PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS, BUT ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD BE BRIEF.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 3
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE CREATES CHILLY START TO
THE WEEK.
CAD WEDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY MARCH. WEDGE LOOKS TO HAVE A GREATER
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND MAY CAPTURE MORE OF A MARINE
INFLUENCE AND HAVE A CHANCE TO GET UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S.
WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT
PUSHES THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THIS DOES
HELP BREAK UP THE SETUP, IT'S NOT A CLASSIC EROSION OF THE WEDGE,
LIKE WHAT A COLD FRONT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF. STILL AFRAID THAT THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BUST HERE. FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 60S TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS A HANDFUL OF DATA TO SUGGEST
THAT WE MAY NEVER LEAVE THE 50S. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS MORE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
KEY MESSAGE 4
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY WEDNESDAY, CONTINUES ALL
WEEK LONG.
BETTER FORCING COMES INTO PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT, ERODING THE WEDGE FOR
GOOD THIS TIME. SUDDENLY, THERE IS GOOD VERTICAL CONTINUITY IN
OFFSHORE RIDGING, ACCOMPANIED WITH AN OLD FRIEND IN THE BERMUDA
HIGH. VERY WARM TEMPS ON THE WAY, EASILY GOING UP INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. THIS WARMTH IS HERE TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, GIVING THE INLAND LOCALES A CHANCE TO HIT 80
DEGREES JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. SUBSIDENCE STILL
APPEARS TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES THURSDAY, BUT THAT
APPEARS TO WEAKEN MORE EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERMAL
PROFILES AREN'T THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LACK OF A LARGER SYNOPTIC
SETUP, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH HEAT TO SPARK SOME INSTABILITY. ENTER THE
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IN TYPICAL SPRING/SUMMER
FASHION. PULSE STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY THE SEABREEZE, SPONSORED
BY HEALTHY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAND AND SEA. GET READY
FOR THE POLLEN PODS TO START OPENING UP...
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SC TERMINALS + KLBT WILL BATTLE DENSE FOG TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
LIKELY THROUGH 13-14Z. KILM COULD HAVE DENSE FOG AT TIMES BUT IT
LOOKS MUCH LESS PREDOMINANT HERE. TAFS WILL BE ADJUSTED IF THE TREND
CHANGES BUT FOR NOW, DENSE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARDS THE
SC COAST WITH SOME LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. LIGHT WEST WINDS AFTER 14Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH SO EXPECT A SHARP SHIFT IN WINDS
FROM W/SW TO THE NE ~10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND DROPPING CIGS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER
A RIDGING HIGH WITH VFR PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AMIDST LOW RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BEFORE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CHANGE FROM SW TO NE RAPIDLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM
~8 KTS TO 15-20 KTS. +25 KT GUSTS AND 6 FOOTERS HAVE LEAD TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND BEYOND.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20
NM UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY. STIFF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRIP THE
WATERS MONDAY IN A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES, WITH SEAS AT 4-6
FT AT THE COAST, 6-7 FT OUT 20 NM FROM SHORE. GRADIENT LOOSENS
TUESDAY, AS THE WEDGE VERY SLOWLY TRIES TO BREAK. WINDS VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE ESE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, COMING DOWN TO 5-10 KTS. SEAS
ARE SLOW TO REACT, BUT EVENTUALLY COME DOWN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AND
THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY, PUMPING WARM AIR THROUGH THE AREA.
SEAS LINGER RIGHT AT 3-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LEW
KEY MESSAGES...LEW/IGB
DISCUSSION...LEW/IGB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...LEW/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page