287
FXUS62 KILM 071817
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
117 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. AVIATION DISCUSSION
HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK; NEAR-RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY, A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN SECTIONS AS DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OF 500- 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OCCUR. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF ~30KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ONE OR TWO WEAKLY
ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY-
SCATTERED, THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK; NEAR-RECORD
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO AVERAGE 12 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER/MID 80S INLAND BY WEDNESDAY AS SW FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY FALL SHY OF RECORD VALUES,
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL LIKELY CHALLENGE RECORD
HIGH-MINIMUM VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AOA 5 KT OVERNIGHT,
EXPECT STRATUS AOB 1 KFT TO DEVELOP AT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE, CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE COULD BE RESTRICTIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL FOG INLAND AND
ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF SEA FOG AT THE COAST WILL BRING NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT S WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT
SUNDAY WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG TONIGHT IS LOWER THAN THE RECENT PAST
DUE TO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORY BUT
WE STILL SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST WEST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS MAINTAINS THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE, RESULTING IN LIGHT SWLY FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT WITH A DOMINATE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELL.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SWLY WINDS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY, WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
6-7 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...31/CBL
DISCUSSION...CBL
AVIATION...31
MARINE...31/CBL
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