868
FXUS62 KILM 081100
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 7 AM EDT SUNDAY... AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL NOON SUNDAY. INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY SHOULD LESSEN VISIBILITY IMPACTS BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1 AM EST SUNDAY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE EXISTING MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO COVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK;
NEAR-RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HREF FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NC/SC. AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD, INSTABILITY OVER
EASTERN NC/SC SHOULD EXTEND THEIR LIFETIME INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG, UP TO AROUND 1,000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL BE COUPLED WITH RATHER WEAK SHEAR OF AROUND 30
KNOTS. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE IS RATHER BALANCED FOR A
EARLY SPRING ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD FAVOR A FEW WELL-STRUCTURED
STORMS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES, DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.
WHILE WINDS BELOW 500 MB DO NOT EXCEED 40 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE COULD ENHANCE
ANY DOWNDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY DCAPE
EXCEEDING 750 J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH A SIMILAR CAPE VALUE.
THESE DOWNDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO OVERPERFORM,
ESPECIALLY WITH A WESTERLY STORM MOTION OF AROUND 35 KNOTS.
SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF LARGE HAIL; THE STRONGEST
STORM MAY PRODUCE A REPORT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE, SC TO SOUTHPORT, NC.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE SHIELDED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE EASTWARD, THE SURFACE LAYER
MAY DECOUPLE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHICH WOULD
MUTE AN ALREADY LOW-END DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK; NEAR-RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. TYPICALLY WE
WOULD EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR EARLY MARCH. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY COULD
REACH THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE, ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THE COOL SSTS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SHELF WATERS (50S TO AROUND
60) WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER. A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL, WITH COOLER AIR ON TAP THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY, AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS BY MID OR LATE
MORNING. A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER IN SW FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITHIN THIS PERIOD IS TIMING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. HREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE LATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. STORMS WILL BE
PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS OVER OUR INLAND
TERMINALS. THE SEA BREEZE AND DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS LOW FOR ILM AND THE GRAND STRAND.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND NO CHANGE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG, STRATUS, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO CIRRUS AND LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF FOG COULD BRING LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS. SEA FOG COULD ADVECT INTO THE
GRAND STRAND TERMINALS AT TIMES DURING THIS WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF WEAK
AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS ELEVATE TO 3-4
FEET FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ONSHORE WILL PUSH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. WHILE
THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE, SOME LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ANY SEA FOG THAT
REMAINS THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ITS
UNIFORMITY WITH THE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AS LIGHTER WINDS RETURN TONIGHT, SEA FOG MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FRONT STALLING IN THE AREA WILL BECOME LIGHT SWLY DURING
THE DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS.
RELATIVELY BENIGN MARITIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
WELL, THE SWLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, ESPECIALLY DURING
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME, INCLUDING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES AWAY AND THE FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE. THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NELY DIRECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS MAY LINGER
MONDAY WITH THE STALLED/DISSIPATING FRONT, THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT
MORE-SO THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...21/SRP
DISCUSSION...21/SRP
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/SRP
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