641
FXUS62 KILM 081802
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TODAY HAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAIN THREAT REMAINS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS. 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) INTERMITTENT SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
3) NEAR RECORD HEAT FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
4) STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY WITH BRIEF COOLDOWN
BEHIND IT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WHILE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE,
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS, PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF SEVERE
LIMITS IN A FEW STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INTERMITTENT SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, THROUGH
MID-WEEK. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY. SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
DURING MORNING HOURS. STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF ON AND OFF SEA FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NEAR RECORD HEAT FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
WAA ACROSS THE AREA PERSISTS THROUGH MID-WEEK AROUND OFFSHORE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGH LOWS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 15C, WELL ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH
TEMPS AROUND 84-86F WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TEMPS
FOR FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON. ACTIVE SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS 5-10F COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 4...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY WITH
BRIEF COOLDOWN BEHIND IT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY. DECENT
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT QPF IS RATHER MEAGER (AND
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH TO HELP OUR ONGOING DROUGHT). THE BIGGER IMPACTS
FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURE CHANGE.
STRONG WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE 30+ MPH GUSTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WILL TAKE PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES,
AND DEWPOINTS, QUICKLY DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS DRY AND COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPS THURSDAY MIGHT NOT GET OUT
OF THE 60S. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S, WITH LINGERING BL WINDS PREVENTING EVEN FURTHER COOLING. HIGHS
FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED NEAR NORMAL BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ATTM WILL LIKELY BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION
THOUGH BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AS SEA STRATUS
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
MAYBE VSBYS IN MIST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY ONCE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. GUSTY S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AFTER CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH. HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF FOG COULD BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS. SEA FOG COULD ADVECT INTO THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS AT TIMES DURING THIS WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS
FOR MONDAY. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SEA FOG/STRATUS HAS MOVED BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BUT, ON SATELLITE, LOOKS TO BE BREAKING
UP QUICKLY DUE TO DIVERGING WINDS NEARER THE COAST RESULTING FROM
THE SEA BREEZE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER SEA
FOG WILL REDEVELOP BEFORE CONVECTION AND ANY ENHANCED WINDS WITH
THAT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER CONVECTION ENDS, SEA FOG MAY
RETURN BUT MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH EFFECT NEARER THE BEACHES DUE TO A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. NO FLAGS ATTM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-
3 FT PERSISTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE. INTERMITTENT SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST EARLY THURSDAY, WITH ENHANCED WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASING SSW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT, BECOMING 10-15 KTS DAYTIME
FRIDAY AND VEERING ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHERLIES. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO S SWELL, WITH
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS LIKELY NECESSITATING A
SCA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS LOWER TO 2-4 FT FOR
FRIDAY, PRIMARILY AS A NNE WIND WAVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...VAO/31
DISCUSSION...VAO/31
AVIATION...31
MARINE...VAO/31
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