641
FXUS62 KILM 090615
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)INTERMITTENT SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2)THE WARMTH PEAKS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INTERMITTENT SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
PERSISTENT ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, THROUGH
MID-WEEK. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY. SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
DURING MORNING HOURS. STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF ON AND OFF SEA FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE WARMTH PEAKS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW A SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA
HIGH PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. WEDNESDAY GETS A SMALL PREFRONTAL
BOLSTERING OF THE WAA AND INLAND LOCATIONS WILL TAKE A RUN AT
RECORD HIGHS, LISTED BELOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL
CLIMATE SITES RECORDS SAFE AS SSTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXTRAPOLATING THE SPC OUTLOOKS IT'S
EASY TO SEE THAT THE FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN BOTH THE VIGOR OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMPLE
WARMTH AND MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT PASSAGE. THE COOLDOWN
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND WE GET BACK INTO RETURN FLOW.
INLAND RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 11:
FLO 86 SET IN 2015
LBT 87 FROM 1925
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER, SATURATED
SOILS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S, WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEAKEN.
WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS AREA EXPECTED WITH MINIMUMS LIKELY
REACHED AT ALL TERMINALS. FOG MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE ADDED SURFACE LAYER MOISTURE. ONCE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE, VFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THIS
EVENING. LOWER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF FOG LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT SEA FOG MAY COMPLICATE
THE FORECAST ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF FOG COULD BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS. SEA FOG COULD ADVECT INTO THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS AT TIMES DURING THIS WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
NEARSHORE SEA FOG FROM REDEVELOPING. HOWEVER, AS SHOWERS MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THIS MORNING SEA
FOG MAY REDEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A NEARSHORE SEA BREEZE MAY BREAK
UP EXISTING SEA FOG DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT
LITTLE CHANGE IN DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD SEE IT
REDEVELOP THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER-MAKER OVER BOTH LAND AND SEA. FOR THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT THIS MEANS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GENERATING A 2-3
FT WIND WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. BIG CHANGES COME WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY THAT WILL SHARPLY TURN WINDS THROUGH
W, NW, AND EVENTUALLY NE WITH SUSTAINED SCA SPEEDS AND GALE-
FORCE GUSTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO ADVISORY LEVELS. IT'S A
QUICK SHOT THOUGH SO HEADLINES MAY COME DOWN AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE SURFACE PATTERN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/21
DISCUSSION...MBB/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MBB/21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page