462
FXUS62 KILM 100044
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
844 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ANTICIPATED TIMING OF THURSDAY'S COLD
FRONT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EARLY MORNING FOG ON LAND AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
3) A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS,
THEN A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL AS INTERMITTENT SEA FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ABNORMALLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL MAINTAIN A
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER THE WATERS, MAINLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A RISK FOR FOG, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOG OVER LAND AND WATER MAY BECOME DENSE
AT TIMES, WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ITS PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE RISK FOR FOG ON LAND, ALTHOUGH AREAS RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST MAY STILL SEE SEA FOG REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNTIL
WINDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX OUT FOG OVER THE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
A HUMID SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS BROUGHT NORTHWARD BY THE FLOW AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INLAND
FROM ANY COOLING SEABREEZE EFFECTS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE 80S, PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS
OF THE PEE DEE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY
FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +13 TO +14C RANGE, ABOUT 5-6C ABOVE
NORMAL AND A FULL DEGREE C ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE
VALUES FOR MID MARCH.
UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S, AROUND 20 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ASSUMING OUR FORECAST WORKS OUT, WE'LL END UP WITH SIX CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 80+ DEGREE HIGHS IN LUMBERTON AND SEVEN IN FLORENCE, THE
FIRST TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED SINCE LATE SEPTEMBER OF LAST YEAR.
HISTORICALLY MARCH USUALLY RECORDS THREE DAYS IN THE 80S IN
LUMBERTON AND FIVE IN FLORENCE, SO THIS MONTH IS ALREADY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WARM DAYS WITH OVER HALF THE MONTH STILL TO GO.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS, THEN A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
TODAY'S NEW SUITE OF MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
BOTH SHOW THE FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 10AM AND 2 PM, WITH LAST NIGHT'S 00Z
ECWMF EVEN A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH TIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ON THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED BY THE GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT PAIRED WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF A WELL-POSITIONED UPPER
TROUGH RACING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST WIND PROFILES AT THIS TIME
RANGE DON'T SHOW SIGNIFICANT HELICITY THAT WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT, HOWEVER CAPE IN THE 500 J/KG (GFS) TO 1500 J/KG (NAM) RANGE
ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 50 KNOTS COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL AT LEAST
PARTIALLY DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY HOURS OF DESTABILIZING SUN CAN
SNEAK IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLDER AND MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH
TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH TO KEEP DAYTIME CUMULUS ABOVE 3KFT.
OTHERWISE, WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, ANOTHER
ROUND OF MIST/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THIS IS COMPLICATED BY A
DECK OF MID-UPPER CLOUDS WHICH IS TIMED TO PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIS RESTRICTIONS IS LIMITED FOR THE INLAND
TERMINALS NEAR I-95 AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR COASTAL TERMINALS, WHERE
THERE IS GREATER TIME TO COOL AND DEVELOP MIST. THUS, TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND FOCUS ON EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF DENSE CLOUDINESS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THE CLOUDINESS WILL EITHER STOP OR REVERSE ANY VIS REDUCTIONS THAT
WOULD BE IN PLACE, BUT IF THE CLOUDS ARE TOO THIN, THEN VIS
REDUCTIONS WOULD CONTINUE. SEA FOG MAY AFFECT THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS WITH LIFR VIS AS WELL, BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY
THE CLOUDS. ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MIST/FOG SHOULD ABATE BY 14Z-
15Z, IF NOT SOONER. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, BUT ANY VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF FOG COULD BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS. SEA FOG COULD ADVECT INTO THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS AT TIMES DURING THIS WEEK.
MARINE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TO NEAR
20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AREAS OF SEA FOG MAY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BROUGHT NORTHWARD FROM
FLORIDA IS CHILLED TO ITS DEWPOINT ACROSS OUR STILL-COLD NEARSHORE
OCEAN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
MODELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
DOWN THURSDAY, IMPLYING IT MAY NOT ARRIVE AT THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SUDDEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS AND POSSIBLY A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOO. A TRANSITORY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH DRIER (GOOD VISIBILITY)
AIR, LIGHTER WINDS SPEEDS, AND QUICKLY VEERING EASTERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS EXPECTED.
THROUGH TUESDAY... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT. SEA FOG WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MORNING
TIMEFRAME WITH IT BECOMING PATCHY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SE SWELL WITH A PERIOD
OF 9 SEC. A LINGERING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE OF 1-2 FT WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 6 SEC IS EXPECTED TO DECAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS:
..................... TUE MAR 10 ... WED MAR 11
THU MAR 12
WILMINGTON NC......... 88 IN 1974 ... 86 IN 2016 ... 87 IN 1990
LUMBERTON NC.......... 87 IN 1974 ... 87 IN 1925 ... 85 IN 1925
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC.... 76 IN 2017 ... 82 IN 1997 ... 80 IN 1943
FLORENCE SC........... 92 IN 1974 ... 86 IN 2015 ... 88 IN 1990
LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/ABW
DISCUSSION...TRA/ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/ABW
CLIMATE...TRA
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