225
FXUS62 KILM 101301
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
901 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SC WATERS OUT
TO 20NMI AND EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BETWEEN CAPE FEAR NC AND LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT TO 20NMI.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EARLY MORNING FOG ON LAND AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, NEAR RECORD VALUES WEDNESDAY,
WILL BE BROUGHT TO AND END BY A STORMY COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EARLY MORNING FOG ON LAND AS WELL AS PERIODS OF
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SEA FOG EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. ANY DEVELOPING SEA FOG MAY MOVE ONSHORE
AND IMPACT COASTAL COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE GRAND
STRAND AND COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MAY ALSO SUPPORT RADIATION FOG TONIGHT. FOG MAY BE DENSE AT
TIMES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ITS PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THESE
INCREASED WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE RISK FOR FOG ON LAND,
ALTHOUGH AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST MAY STILL SEE SEA FOG REDUCE
VISIBILITIES UNTIL WINDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX OUT FOG OVER THE
WATERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, NEAR RECORD VALUES WEDNESDAY,
WILL BE BROUGHT TO AND END BY A STORMY COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WE'VE LONG BEEN DISCUSSING THE BERMUDA HIGH AND HOW IT'S BEEN
AN EFFECTIVE SOURCE OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER
THE GULF AMPLIFIES RIGHT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
BRING THIS WARM SPELL TO A PEAK AND UPPER 80S LOOK MORE THAN
ACHIEVABLE AWAY FROM THE COOLING EFFECT OF THE OCEAN NEARSHORE.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHS THAT ARE IN
JEOPARDY. UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL OPEN UP INTO THE WAVE AS IT MOVES FROM TX
TO LA, THEN PARTIALLY PHASING WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.
THIS PUSHES A HEALTHY COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY, THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINICITY PAIRED WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS BRINGING A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AND ALTHOUGH THE RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES OFF THE COAST
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CUT DOWN ON WHAT WOULD BE DROUGHT-RELEVING
QPF. THE PROGRESSION OF THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS WOULD IMPLY
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM LOCALLY THOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY. COLD AIR POURS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE HINTS AT INLAND
LOWS THAT COULD SUPPORT A LITTLE FROST, THOUGH THE NBM IS NOT AS
CHILLY. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE RETURN FLOW KICKS BACK IN AND WE TREND TOWARDS MILD
WEATHER. AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS
MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING. EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS DEALING WITH RESTRICTIONS TO
QUICKLY RETURN TO MVFR OR VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CRE WHERE SEA FOG IS BRINGING IFR
RESTRICTIONS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE MIXING BRINGS VFR. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT THE GRAND STRAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO 14Z, BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS UPSTREAM.
CIGS HAVE REMAINED VFR. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT; CUMULUS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SHOWER
OVER INLAND SC. RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
THE GRAND STRAND TERMINALS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
RETURNS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF FOG COULD BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS. SEA FOG COULD ADVECT INTO THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS AT TIMES DURING THIS WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC SEA FOG CONTINUES TO BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS
REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ONE LAST DAY OF BERMUDA HIGH-INDUCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING BUT BOTH WIND AND WAVES WILL STAY SUB-ADVISORY. THE
RISING DEWPOINTS AND THE SPECTER OF SEA FOG WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD
TO NAVIGATION. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AT WHICH TIME SCA FLAGS WILL
HAVE TO BE RAISED. THURSDAY'S FROPA WILL BRING A SHARP VEERING OF
THE STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS WHILE WAVE FACES STEEPEN AND SHOWERS
AND STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS. THE ONLY SILVER LINING FOR MARINERS ON
AN OTHERWISE DICEY THURSDAY WILL BE THAT THE SEA FOG WILL BE PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER BY THE
PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS:
................... TUE MAR 10 ... WED MAR 11 ... THU MAR 12
WILMINGTON NC......... 88 IN 1974 ... 86 IN 2016 ... 87 IN 1990
LUMBERTON NC.......... 87 IN 1974 ... 87 IN 1925 ... 85 IN 1925
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC.... 76 IN 2017 ... 82 IN 1997 ... 80 IN 1943
FLORENCE SC........... 92 IN 1974 ... 86 IN 2015 ... 88 IN 1990
LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/21/ABW
DISCUSSION...MBB/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MBB/21
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