405
FXUS62 KILM 110605
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
205 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ON LAND TONIGHT. SEA FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE BOTH THIS MORNING AND
THIS EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE ROUTINE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AS A WET COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
2) PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL TRANSITION TO MUCH
COOLER WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS A WET COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
INLAND LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS COOLER. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
THREATENED RECORDS.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPR- LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL COME EARLY ON
THURSDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO COOLER NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE EARLY TIMING AND MAINLY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH. FOLLOWING EARLY DAY HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S, TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE MID 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED DEW POINTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THIS COLD
FRONT, SEA FOG MAY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NC AND
NORTHEAST SC. SEA FOG MAY MOVE ONSHORE AT TIMES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND MID-MORNING TODAY AND THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE GRAND
STRAND AND COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING IMPACTS FROM SEA FOG.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH ITS PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR FOG ON LAND
TONIGHT. AS WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ANY IMPACTFUL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SEA FOG.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD
FOG POTENTIAL ON LAND TONIGHT. I HAVE FAVORED SOME GROUND FOG
FOR THE NC TERMINALS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHEST.
SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE GRAND STRAND TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, BUT NIGHT FOG PRODUCTS ON SATELLITE ARE MUCH LESS
ACTIVE IN THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. STILL, I FAVORED A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR CRE GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TURNING SOUTHWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO TRIM THIS
BACK AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE PERIOD; HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AFTER SUNRISE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMPRESSION OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING
THIS EVENING. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. A
STRONG INVERSION AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER RH SHOULD LIMIT
STRATUS. SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING CRE AND ILM
DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY, MAINTAINING THEIR GUSTINESS THROUGHOUT THE SHIFT (AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED). VFR IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS WEEK AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR
ONE MORE DAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS
WITHIN THE SEA BREEZE AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE
PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FETCH, THEREFORE WIND WAVES ARE LIKELY TO
BUILD QUICKLY BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS ALONG THE OUTER EDGE
OF THE 20 NM FORECAST ZONE COULD EXCEED 6 FEET BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
THURSDAY AFTN AND EVENING, DUE TO 50% CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 35 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FROPA. THEREAFTER,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH DAYTIME SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11TH:
..................
WED MAR 11
WILMINGTON NC......... 86 IN 2016
LUMBERTON NC.......... 87 IN 1925
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC.... 82 IN 1997
FLORENCE SC........... 86 IN 2015
LUMBERTON AND FLORENCE ARE FORECAST TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS
TODAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLED BY AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE AND HAVE A LOWER CHANCE TO BREAK EXISTING RECORDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/21
DISCUSSION...MAS/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21
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