997
FXUS62 KILM 251855
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
255 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THUNDER CHANCES.
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THUNDER
CHANCES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE REGION AS HIGHS REACH
WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SEABREEZE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COAST, BRINGING MORE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST BASED ON WHEN IT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH THE STRONG SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE
CHANCES FOR TYING/BREAKING ANY RECORDS HAVE INCREASED FURTHER
FOR INLAND AREAS TO ~70%, AND ARE CLOSE TO 20% AT THE COASTAL
CLIMATE SITES. RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 27 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
FLORENCE, SC: 89 IN 2021
LUMBERTON, NC: 87 IN 1950 & 1949
WILMINGTON, NC: 87 IN 2020
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 80 IN 1944
THE TIMING AND RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FRONT HAVEN'T
CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TIMING REMAINS ROUGHLY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SHOULD INSTABILITY HOLD ON INLAND
AROUND SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS COULD BRING
INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERALL,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT REGARDING FOG POSSIBLY
BRINGING MVFR. AS CITED PREVIOUSLY, GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED
POORLY WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN
PLACE, AND THIS COULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BE TRANSLATING TO
TONIGHT'S VSBY UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS MORE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THAT CAPS THE FOG AT MVFR INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE
PROBABILISTIC MODELS. HAVE DONE THE SAME BUT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD MANNER, NOW SHOWING FOG AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT BRINGING THE LIGHT
WINDS AND THEN LIGHT SW FLOW THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS
EVENING AND VEER IN DIRECTION DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH.
SEAS WILL ABATE, WITH THE WIND WAVE DROPPING OFF MORE QUICKLY
THAN THE SWELLS, OF WHICH THERE ARE TWO ACCORDING TO SPECTRAL
PLOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... S/SW FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A SLOW UPTICK IN SPEEDS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS A GUARANTEE AND A 50-60% CHANCE FOR GALE GUSTS.
SLOWLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MAS/MBB
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