745
FXUS62 KILM 252329
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
729 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THUNDER CHANCES.
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THUNDER
CHANCES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE REGION AS HIGHS REACH
WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SEABREEZE
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COAST, BRINGING MORE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST BASED ON WHEN IT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH THE STRONG SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE
CHANCES FOR TYING/BREAKING ANY RECORDS HAVE INCREASED FURTHER
FOR INLAND AREAS TO ~70%, AND ARE CLOSE TO 20% AT THE COASTAL
CLIMATE SITES. RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 27 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
FLORENCE, SC: 89 IN 2021
LUMBERTON, NC: 87 IN 1950 & 1949
WILMINGTON, NC: 87 IN 2020
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 80 IN 1944
THE TIMING AND RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FRONT HAVEN'T
CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TIMING REMAINS ROUGHLY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM SHOULD INSTABILITY HOLD ON INLAND
AROUND SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS COULD BRING
INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW REGARDING MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT
AS LIGHT OR CALM WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME MIST DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE ENDING, LIMITED COOLING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION, HI-RES GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST A DECK OF
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6KFT SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE NIGHT, STOPPING OR EVEN REVERSING COOLING DEPENDING ON THEIR
COVERAGE. AS A RESULT, THE TIMING AND PERSISTENCE OF ANY MIST
CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT WITH DEW POINTS HAVING REBOUNDED
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW, AT LEAST PATCHY MIST
SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN PERMIT A PERIOD OF COOLING. WHAT MAY
END UP OCCURRING ARE PERIODS OF MIST DURING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF CLEARING DUE TO CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD.
THUS, THE PREVIOUS FM GROUPS WERE CONVERTED TO TEMPO GROUPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTATION. THE INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD END UP
SEEING ENOUGH CLOUDINESS TO KEEP ANY MIST AT BAY, BUT TRANSIENT
MVFR MIST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES. ULTIMATELY, ANY MIST
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING AS CLOUDS THIN AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG FRIDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS
EVENING AND VEER IN DIRECTION DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH.
SEAS WILL ABATE, WITH THE WIND WAVE DROPPING OFF MORE QUICKLY
THAN THE SWELLS, OF WHICH THERE ARE TWO ACCORDING TO SPECTRAL
PLOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... S/SW FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A SLOW UPTICK IN SPEEDS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS A GUARANTEE AND A 50-60% CHANCE FOR GALE GUSTS.
SLOWLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS/MBB
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