421
FXUS62 KILM 260628
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
4) FROST AND/OR FREEZE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
WARM ADVECTION AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR RECORD HIGH LEVELS FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST IN NC. UNFORTUNATELY NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO HELP EASE THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
MARCH 27 RECORD HIGHS:
FLORENCE, SC: 89 IN 2021
LUMBERTON, NC: 87 IN 1950 & 1949
WILMINGTON, NC: 87 IN 2020
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 80 IN 1944
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY COULD BRING AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF LITTLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 4: FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH MINIMAL SKY COVER, ESPECIALLY
INLAND, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THUS, WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MID 30S ARE MOST LIKELY WITH EVEN A VERY LOW
RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. THE
EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR ALSO IS A BIT IN QUESTION AND THUS THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD FROST. OUR GREATEST
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS FOR PATCHY FROST OVER NORTHERN PENDER
COUNTY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARRYING THROUGH THE EARLIER
THOUGHTS ABOUT FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FALLING BUT SLOWLY,
AND SOME MIST IS SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONS BUT NOTHING MVFR AND
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS ARE COMING IN SO WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THESE CAN KEEP THINGS AT BAY. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPO FOR MVFR MORE
TOWARDS SUNRISE. THEN AFTER SUNRISE WE'LL SEE SW WINDS BUILD IN ~10
KTS WITH A SEA BREEZE PUSHING IN FROM THE COAST ~18Z HITTING INLAND
TERMINALS ~23-00Z. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A SW
BREEZE PERSISTING PAST SUNSET. SEA FOG MAY ALSO IMPACT COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT, LOWERED CIGS, AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-
15 KTS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL STAY ~15
KTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT.
SEA FOG MAY ALSO START TO FORM TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SEA
FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY (WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR GALES MAINLY EARLY
SATURDAY). SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW
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