680
FXUS62 KILM 261837
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
237 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
4) FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GOOD WAA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH A GOOD 5KFT WHERE THE
AIR WILL STILL BE ABOUT 12C. THIS EASILY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 80S, THE LATE MARCH SUN THEN ADDING AT LEAST 5
DEGREES MORE OF SURFACE HEATING FOR MID TO UPPER 80S AREA-WIDE
SAVE FOR THE BEACHES.
MARCH 27 RECORD HIGHS:
FLORENCE, SC: 89 IN 2021
LUMBERTON, NC: 87 IN 1950 & 1949
WILMINGTON, NC: 87 IN 2020
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 80 IN 1944
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF LITTLE RAINFALL
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 4: FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH MINIMAL SKY COVER,
ESPECIALLY INLAND, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MODEL GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MID 30S ARE MOST LIKELY
WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR ALSO IS A BIT IN
QUESTION AND THUS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD FROST. OUR GREATEST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME IS FOR PATCHY FROST OVER PENDER COUNTY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT FURTHER AND FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE LOW 60S ON FRIDAY AND
SEA FOG MAY START TO DEVELOP. THIS COULD START TO LEAD TO
LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS AT MYR/CRE ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON HEATING
YIELDS A SEABREEZE THAT TURNS THE FLOW MORE ONSHORE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG IMPACTING COASTAL TERMINALS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT, LOWERED CIGS, AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY... WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RAMP UP WIND SPEEDS AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES (HEADLINES BEING HANDLED BY THE EXTENDED FORECASTER,
WHO'S DISCUSSION FOLLOWS) AND ALSO BE RAISING DEWPOINTS JUST
ABOVE SSTS ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA FOG. GUIDANCE ISN'T HITTING THE DROP IN VISIBILITY TOO HARD
SO WHILE FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST A DFA IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MID AFTN DUE TO 50-60%
CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS TO 34 KT IN THE CAA NORTHERLY SURGE
FOLLOWING A SHARP COLD FROPA. LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE MARINE CONDITIONS GREATLY IMPROVE FOR
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/LEW
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