755
FXUS62 KILM 262359
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
4) FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GOOD WAA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH A GOOD 5KFT WHERE THE
AIR WILL STILL BE ABOUT 12C. THIS EASILY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 80S, THE LATE MARCH SUN THEN ADDING AT LEAST 5
DEGREES MORE OF SURFACE HEATING FOR MID TO UPPER 80S AREA-WIDE
SAVE FOR THE BEACHES.
MARCH 27 RECORD HIGHS:
FLORENCE, SC: 89 IN 2021
LUMBERTON, NC: 87 IN 1950 & 1949
WILMINGTON, NC: 87 IN 2020
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 80 IN 1944
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF LITTLE RAINFALL
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 4: FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH MINIMAL SKY COVER,
ESPECIALLY INLAND, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MODEL GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MID 30S ARE MOST LIKELY
WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR ALSO IS A BIT IN
QUESTION AND THUS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD FROST. OUR GREATEST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME IS FOR PATCHY FROST OVER PENDER COUNTY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG LOW STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE AND
AFFECTING CRE/MYR DURING DAYLIGHT FRI AS DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO
THE 60S AND WINDS BACK JUST ENOUGH TO A S-SSW DIRECTION MIDDAY
THRU EARLY EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY, SFC HIGH OFF THE SE STATES
COAST TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SW
WINDS BECOMING WSW INLAND TERMINALS EARLY FRI AS THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE NORTH BECOMES A
PLAYER. TIGHTENED SFC PG TO YIELD 10-20 G25+ KT AS A LLJ 30-40
KT MAINTAINS OVERHEAD. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WINDS MAY BACK AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO AN ACTIVE BUT PINNED SEA BREEZE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC COAST BUT LIKELY PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS NC
COAST, REACHING ILM MID TO LATE AFTN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG
IMPACTING COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY FRI EVENING. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM LOWERED
CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. VFR
RETURNS BY SAT DAYTIME MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THRU TUE.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY... WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RAMP UP WIND SPEEDS AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES (HEADLINES BEING HANDLED BY THE EXTENDED FORECASTER,
WHO'S DISCUSSION FOLLOWS) AND ALSO BE RAISING DEWPOINTS JUST
ABOVE SSTS ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA FOG. GUIDANCE ISN'T HITTING THE DROP IN VISIBILITY TOO HARD
SO WHILE FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST A DFA IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MID AFTN DUE TO 50-60%
CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS TO 34 KT IN THE CAA NORTHERLY SURGE
FOLLOWING A SHARP COLD FROPA. LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE MARINE CONDITIONS GREATLY IMPROVE FOR
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...ILM/MAS/MBB
DISCUSSION...ILM/MAS/MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MAS/MBB
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