833
FXUS62 KILM 270711
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST SC FOR POSSIBLE DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS LIKELY INLAND TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT.
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
4) FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD HIGHS LIKELY INLAND TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT.
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, PLENTY OF SUN, LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND A GENERALLY PINNED SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD HIGH LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUR N. MYRTLE BEACH (KCRE) CLIMATE SITE WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HARDEST
TIME REACHING A RECORD HIGH. OTHERWISE, LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, GENERALLY GREATEST IN
NC. UNFORTUNATELY, LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND CLOSER TO THE NC SANDHILLS AND
NORTHERN SC PEE DEE. THUS, NO HELP EASING THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE UP TO AROUND 25 MPH AND UP TO
AROUND 35 MPH TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
MARCH 27 RECORD HIGHS:
FLORENCE, SC: 89 IN 2021 LUMBERTON, NC: 87 IN 1950 & 1949
WILMINGTON, NC: 87 IN 2020 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 80 IN 1944
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
BRING ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TO OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF LITTLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, CONDITIONS FOR NE SC ARE MORE CONDUCIVE DUE TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DRY THE COASTAL AREAS WILL GET
BUT FOR NOW 30-35 MPH GUSTS (MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING) AND HUMIDITY
VALUES 15-25% COULD CAUSE FIRES TO CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 4: FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH MINIMAL SKY COVER, CLASSIC
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARDS
COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE MID 30S ARE MOST
LIKELY. HAVE DROPPED OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS BY 5-10 DEGREES
INTO THE LOWER 30S/NEAR 30. FOR NOW FREEZING CONDITIONS STILL SEEM
DELEGATED TO THESE SPOTS, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCES THAT INLAND
AREAS COULD DROP NEAR FREEZING AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED CONTINUED
MONITORING AS LOWS HOVER AROUND 33-34F AT THIS TIME. IN TERMS OF
FROST, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE INHIBITING
SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD FROST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE
FOR PATCHY FROST OVER PENDER CO AND IN THOSE TRADITIONALLY COLDER
SPOTS (GREEN SWAMP, EASTERN BLADEN CO BORDERING SAMPSON CO, ETC).
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND THEN MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF MVFR CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, MAINLY AT KLBT/KILM. ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A STRONG SW LLJ NEAR 40 KT
COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINAL LLWS THRU AROUND 12Z, MAINLY IN NC.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 12Z SAT BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS
WHICH SHOULD THEN GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR MINOR RESTRICTIONS STARTING
SUN AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TODAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY BUT WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE COOL SSTS,
BUT THEN INCREASE QUICKLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE RISK OF GALE FORCE GUSTS STARTS JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. ALSO, COULD SEE SOME SEA FOG DEVELOP TODAY INTO EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... CONFIDENCE ON GALES HAS NOT REALLY
INCREASED SO THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE TIMING FOR
GUSTS TO 34 KT WOULD FALL MAINLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND AFTER AS CAA POURS OVER THE WATERS, STRONGEST WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MARINE
CONDITIONS GREATLY IMPROVE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...RJB/LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW
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