217
FXUS62 KILM 280000
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
800 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE APPROACH 8 PM EDT.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOUND BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
3) FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
4) CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.
POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS PAIRED WITH STRONG COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY. IT'S A
RATHER MARGINAL SETUP BUT WITH AFTER COORD WITH OUR STATE
LIAISON OFFICES, WHO COLLAB WITH FOREST SERVICE THE FOLLOWING
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DECIDED UPON: THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR SC, WHERE THERE IS ALSO A
STATE-ISSUED BAN ON OUTDOOR BURNING. OUR NC COUNTIES WILL NOW
HIGHLIGHT WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT, THE DECISION WHETHER TO
LEAVE IT OR UPGRADE TO RFW TO BE RE- EVALUATED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SKY COVER. THESE ARE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT NOT IDEAL AS A
FEW KNOTS OF NE BREEZE MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST, HOWEVER IT
WILL BE TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT ANYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, SO CONSIDERATION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO PROTECTING SENSITIVE
PLANTS WHERE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S AT THE COAST, BUT THEY
COULD EASILY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER IF THE WIND DOES DECOUPLE,
AND IN THOSE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS, SUCH AS HOLLY SHELTER,
GREEN SWAMP, ETC.
KEY MESSAGE 4: CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP NEXT WEEK, AND RETURN FLOW
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE. PWAT SURGES TO
1.25+" AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DOT THE RADAR IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS BY
WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES THU-FRI AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NW OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SW WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL START
TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR FROM THE NORTHWEST BY 04-06Z TONIGHT. THE
FRONT LOOKS DRY OVERALL, WITH PERHAPS KLBT STANDING THE GREATEST
CHANCE AT RECORDING SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF -RA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW HERE. MVFR CEILINGS LIFT UP BACK TO VFR BY 12-14Z SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH SKIES CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST, AND GUSTS WON'T HAVE A PROBLEM WHIPPING
UP TO 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTS MAY START TO COME DOWN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME MORNING FOG THAT COULD FORM EACH
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE, STARTING MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH THE COOLER SSTS COULD MAKE THAT OCCUR SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
FORECAST AS MIXING IS INHIBITED SLIGHTLY. WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW TONIGHT THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
OFFSET THIS AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY. WE MAY SEE GALE-
FORCE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
RAISED TO A VERY MARGINAL GALE WARNING AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE HEADLINE GOES THROUGH 19Z BUT CAN LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY.
DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS THE CASE A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR
A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER. SPECTRAL BUOY PLOTS SHOW THAT THE SWELL ENERGY
HAS TAPERED OFF AND THAT ONLY WIND WAVES REMAIN. THIS WILL BE THE
CASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT THE SHARP FRONTAL VEER AND SATURDAY'S
GUSTY N WINDS WILL BRING TWO WAVE GROUPS OF LESS THAN 5 SECONDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP MONDAY AND REMAIN
ANCHORED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KTS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/CRM
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