775
FXUS62 KILM 290110
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
910 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RED FLAG WARNING OVER NORTHEAST SC EXPIRED AT 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. A NEW FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC FROM 10 AM EDT TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY.
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOREST SERVICE HAVE BOTH ISSUED BURN BANS FOR ALL OF THE
CAROLINAS.
ELSEWHERE, THE GALE WARNING ALSO EXPIRED AT 8 PM EDT, AND WAS
PROMPTLY REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, WHICH GOES UNTIL
8 PM EDT SUNDAY.
FINALLY, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
2) AREAS IN THE FREEZE WATCH UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING, ALSO
WITH THE INCLUSION OF DARLINGTON COUNTY SC.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY.
4) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THE LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FA,
ESPECIALLY THE ILM NC CWA, GIVEN A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT WAS
SLOW TO TRAVERSE THE FA. BY MID-AFTERNOON, RH ACROSS MOST AREAS
WILL RANGE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THE GUSTY N-NNE WINDS HAVE
PREVAILED BUT WILL DIMINISH IN GUSTINESS BY SUNSET WITH NNE-NE
WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS PREVAILING BY MID-EVENING. THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH BASICALLY NO RAIN
FROM THE EARLIER CFP THAT HAS RESULTED WITH CONTINUED DRY FUEL
CONDITIONS STEMMING FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE CONTINUATION OF THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER, IE. FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THE ILM NC CWA...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
ILM SC CWA. EXPIRATION TIMES FOR BOTH STATEMENTS ARE 8PM THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AREAS IN THE FREEZE WATCH UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING, ALSO WITH THE INCLUSION OF DARLINGTON COUNTY SC.
CENTER OF SFC HIGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S TO
EVENTUALLY TEMPORARILY PARK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC, JUST
NORTH OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS. WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT CLOSE ENOUGH WHERE N-NNE WINDS
SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE NE AOB 5 KT ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNED AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4AM AND 7AM SUN. WINDS AT THIS MENTIONED TIME
RANGE COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY DECOUPLE FOR THOSE FEW HRS. HAVE
STAYED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MIN TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DECOUPLING, HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST WITHIN THE WARNED AREA,
GIVEN THE BETTER PROSPECTS OF A DECREASING SFC DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION.`
KEY MESSAGE 3: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
A COMPLICATED UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
NORTHERN US DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEAVES A
STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
NEAR BERMUDA, EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AND RISING DEW
POINTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEXT, A POWERFUL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE PAIR CROSS THE COUNTRY AHEAD
OF IT. THE DETAILS PERTAINING TO HOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EVOLVES, AND SUBSEQUENTLY HOW THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN
RESPONDS, RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW UNSETTLED THE
WEATHER WILL BECOME AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THESE UPPER FEATURES. FURTHERMORE, A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO INFLUENCE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT SETTLES.
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONGST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOLS GENERALLY
SUPPORT A DRIER SCENARIO BEING THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE
WETTER SCENARIO BEING THE NEXT MOST LIKELY. THUS, WHILE IT
APPEARS THE STALLED FRONT AND ITS HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
STAY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, DAILY CHANCES FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENSUE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS THE WARM AND
HUMID BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE SUMMER-LIKE
RESULT. NEVERTHELESS, KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MID-LATE WEEK
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT'S
POSITION AND WHETHER A WETTER OUTCOME BECOMES MORE OR LESS
LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKC SHOULD ALSO
DOMINATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC RETURNS IN THE FORM OF
STRATOCU/ALTOCU. GUSTS HAVE ENDED, WITH ONLY SUSTAINED WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN MORE NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT KFLO/KLBT. WINDS
KICK BACK UP TOWARDS 5-10 KTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR MINOR RESTRICTIONS STARTING MONDAY,
MAINLY DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. BY THURSDAY, SEA FOG
MOVING ONSHORE COULD BE AN ISSUE.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE INITIAL SURGE OF CAA COMBINED WITH A
TIGHTENED SFC PG HAD RESULTED IN 35 TO 39 KT GALE GUSTS ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS EARLIER. WILL SEE CONTINUED G35 KT THRU THE AFTN
BUT BY EARLY THIS EVENING OR POSSIBLY EARLIER, THE CAA WILL
LESSEN WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH 35+ KT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
EXPECT STRONG SCA CONDITIONS, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS, THRU THE
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUN (MAINLY THE WINDS) AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH OVER NC TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST AND RETURN
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP BY SUN AFTN AT MUCH REDUCED SPEEDS AS THE
SFC PG RELAXES SOME. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 7 FT WITH SOME 8
FOOTERS WELL OFF CAPE FEAR AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER WHERE LONGER
FETCH LIES WITH A N-NE WIND. PRIMARILY NE 6 SEC PERIOD WAVES OR
LESS TO DOMINATE EXCEPT LATE TONIGHT OR SUN MAY INCREASE TO 7 TO
8 SECOND PERIODS FROM NE-ENE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A RETURN TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN
PLACE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS STAYING OFF TO THE
NORTH AND WEST, WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ONLY 5-15
KT, WITH SOME DAILY ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE FROM THE SEA BREEZE.
SEAS STEADY AT 2-4 FT, MAINLY CONSISTING OF 7-8 SECOND SE WAVES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/MAS
DISCUSSION...DCH/MAS
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...DCH/MAS
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