272
FXUS62 KILM 290617
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
217 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED FREEZE WARNING FOR DARLINGTON COUNTY AND REPLACED IT WITH
A FROST ADVISORY AS FREEZING TEMPS SEEM LESS LIKELY.
RAISED A FROST ADVISORY FOR INLAND BRUNSWICK, COLUMBUS AND NORTHERN
HORRY COUNTIES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A STRONGER OFFSHORE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZE/FROST CONDITIONS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING,
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF SE NC AND FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SC.
2) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
4) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZE/FROST CONDITIONS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING, MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF SE NC AND FAR INLAND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING IS HELPING AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
WESTWARD INTO THE SC PEE DEE. THUS, THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR INLAND PENDER CO WESTWARD INTO MARLBORO CO, ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR DARLINGTON CO AS FREEZING
TEMPS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED THERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC
SOME FROST IS LIKELY, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON, CONWAY,
MARION, AND DARLINGTON. WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR INLAND
BRUNSWICK, COLUMBUS, NORTHERN HORRY AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES WHERE
WE THINK THE BEST COVERAGE OF FROST WILL BE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
WIND WILL NOT REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OUR FIRE PARTNERS HAVE
REQUESTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR MESSAGING PURPOSES DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
A COMPLICATED UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
NORTHERN US DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEAVES A
STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED NEAR
BERMUDA, EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AND RISING DEW POINTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEXT, A POWERFUL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND RIDGE PAIR CROSS THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF IT. THE DETAILS
PERTAINING TO HOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH EVOLVES, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY HOW THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN RESPONDS, RESULTS IN LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR HOW UNSETTLED THE WEATHER WILL BECOME AS THE
PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE UPPER
FEATURES. FURTHERMORE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRANSLATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO INFLUENCE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SETTLES.
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONGST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
LOW, BUT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY TRENDS AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOLS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A DRIER SCENARIO BEING THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME,
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
EACH DAY. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD A STRONGER
OFFSHORE RIDGE, THUS KEEPING THE FRONT FURTHER AWAY AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LIMITED DUE TO STRONGER SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH THE RIDGE.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE SHOULD STILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY STARTING AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY, AS THE WARM AND HUMID BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE SUMMER-LIKE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEK. KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE MID-LATE WEEK FORECAST THOUGH, AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT'S POSITION AND WHETHER A WETTER
OUTCOME BECOMES MORE OR LESS LIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS SE NC & NE SC. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
THOUGH AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY LOW, ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO,
RISK FOR MARGINAL MVFR CIGS STARTING AROUND 12Z, MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR MINOR RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY DUE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND SHOWERS STARTING WED. BY THU, SEA FOG MOVING
ONSHORE COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO AROUND 7
FEET ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR OR EAST OF
BERMUDA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15KTS.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD
OF 7-8 SEC. A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL WITH PERIOD AROUND 8-9 SEC
WILL DECAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-105.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ099-109.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-024.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ023-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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