541
FXUS62 KILM 291745
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS CONTINUE TO
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
A COMPLICATED UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
NORTHERN US DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEAVES A
STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED NEAR
BERMUDA, EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AND RISING DEW POINTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEXT, A POWERFUL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND RIDGE PAIR CROSS THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF IT. THE DETAILS
PERTAINING TO HOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH EVOLVES, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY HOW THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN RESPONDS, RESULTS IN LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR HOW UNSETTLED THE WEATHER WILL BECOME AS THE
PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE UPPER
FEATURES. FURTHERMORE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRANSLATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO INFLUENCE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SETTLES.
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONGST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
LOW, BUT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY TRENDS AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOLS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A DRIER SCENARIO BEING THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME,
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
MID WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD A STRONGER
OFFSHORE RIDGE, THUS KEEPING THE FRONT FURTHER AWAY AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LIMITED DUE TO STRONGER SUBSIDING AIR BENEATH THE RIDGE.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE SHOULD STILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, STARTING WEDNESDAY, AS
THE WARM AND HUMID BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE
SUMMER-LIKE RESULT THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TAF PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE E
TO SE WILL PRODUCE SOME INTERMITTENT STRATOCU MOVING ONSHORE
AROUND 4-6K FT, MAINLY AFFECTING COASTAL TERMINALS. THIS WILL
MIX WITH A BIT OF AC AND CIRRUS, BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VERY LOW RISK OF ANY FOG EARLY MON MORNING AFFECTING
MAINLY LBT OR FLO AND THEREFORE WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN TAFS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR MINOR RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY DUE TO
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND SHOWERS STARTING WED. BY THU, SEA
FOG MOVING ONSHORE COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE BASICALLY
ENDED ACROSS THE WATERS ASIDE FROM A FEW 6 FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE
OUTER WATERS DIMINISHING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM E TO SE
AND EVENTUALLY MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE MON. SEAS WILL DIMINISH
FROM 4 TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS WEEK. WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN PLACE
WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
WEST, WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ONLY 5-15 KT, WITH SOME
DAILY ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE FROM THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS STEADY AT 2-4
FT, MAINLY CONSISTING OF 7-8 SECOND SE WAVES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/RGZ
DISCUSSION...MAS/RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MAS/RGZ
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