011
FXUS62 KILM 300614
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER
OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE, LEADING TO DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS
ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS A PATTERN MORE
TYPICAL OF SUMMER TAKES HOLD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY ISOLATED
POP-UP SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS A
PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER TAKES HOLD.
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK, AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE GULF TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND STRENGTHEN. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND DEW POINTS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH DAILY
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS EXPECTED STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
WELL-INLAND FROM THE COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS, ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES, AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOLS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARDS LESS PRECIP, OWING TO A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC, WHICH KEEPS A STALLED FRONT WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION. THUS, THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE STRONG HEATING OF AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIR MASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, LEADING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME POP-UP SHOWER
PATTERN WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING INSTABILITY TOO SHALLOW
AND WEAK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE AREA AND BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, THIS MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG, MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND SC DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND PATCHES OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD WILL WORK AGAINST
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO ANY FOG IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PATCHY
AND OF SHORT DURATION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS 15-20 KT AT THE COASTAL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
GENERAL WIND WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG/WELL DEFINED SEA
BREEZE. LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW AS INLAND AREAS COOL.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WED. SEA FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE THU.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE
WATERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ILL-DEFINED
GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 KT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE AS INLAND
AREAS WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVENT A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF
THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
4 FT POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 20NM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR AND EAST OF BERMUDA
MAINTAINING A STEADY PATTERN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-15 KTS. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT TO WIND GUSTS AS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON LAND RESULT IN A RATHER STRONG SEA BREEZE EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDUCE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE,
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 7-8
SEC.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...III/ABW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/ABW
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