722
FXUS62 KILM 301800
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES, WINDS, OR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
2) THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THIS WEEK
WILL SUPPORT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN A PATTERN THAT
LOOKS STRAIGHT OUT OF JULY. TRUE, PARAMETERS LIKE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS AREN'T AT MID SUMMER LEVELS, BUT THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SUMMERLIKE.
FORECAST 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 5840 METERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR BOTH THE
CHARLESTON AND MOREHEAD CITY UPPER AIR SITES. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BETWEEN 7500-12000 FEET AGL SHOULD CAP OFF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, MEANING ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT CAN FORM
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW WITH LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING.
INLAND FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 80-85 RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ~5 DEGREES COOLER DUE TO
ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW SUPPLEMENTED BY THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION EACH AFTERNOON. THIS IS STILL 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
FOR A WEATHER EVENT SEVEN DAYS OUT, THERE IS SURPRISING MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING UP SUNDAY NIGHT
APRIL 5/6. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY
(EASTER) SHOULD SWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY ADVECTING A SWATH OF GULF
MOISTURE OVERHEAD AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE 40-50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO GET A CLEAR HANDLE ON WHETHER ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THIS FRONT. FORECAST MODEST MID AND UPPER
WIND SPEEDS (STRONGEST ON THE CANADIAN, WEAKEST ON THE GFS)
CURRENTLY DON'T ARGUE FOR THIS BEING A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER SETUP,
BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR. RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A MIX OF SE TO SSW FLOW ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SOME CU MAY MOVE ONSHORE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU EACH AFTERNOON AROUND 4-6K FT. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE MOST PART, BUT EXPECT A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE, ESPECIALLY COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KTS AND SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BE IDEAL FOR FOG, BUT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE 10-13 KTS SUGGESTING LIMITED
FOG POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WED. SEA FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
BEGINNING THU.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINING AROUND 10 KT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER
GUSTS WILL EXIST MAINLY NEARSHORE AS SEA BREEZE KICKS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 KT OR LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SEABREEZE WINDS
WILL LOCALLY INCREASE THIS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKING LIKE SOMETHING STRAIGHT
OUT OF SUMMER, WE ANTICIPATE A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FORECAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
WIND DIRECTIONS ARGUE FOR THE BIGGEST SHOWER THREAT TO REMAIN
NEAR CAPE FEAR WHERE SOME GULF STREAM SHOWERS COULD SURVIVE THE
JOURNEY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. FORECAST
SEAS ALSO LOOK LIKE SUMMER WITH AN 8 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SEA STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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