524
FXUS62 KILM 302343
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
2) THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THIS
WEEK WILL SUPPORT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN A
PATTERN THAT LOOKS STRAIGHT OUT OF JULY. TRUE, PARAMETERS LIKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS AREN'T AT MID
SUMMER LEVELS, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SUMMERLIKE.
FORECAST 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 5840 METERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR BOTH THE
CHARLESTON AND MOREHEAD CITY UPPER AIR SITES. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 7500-12000 FEET AGL SHOULD CAP OFF SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, MEANING ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS THAT CAN FORM LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW WITH
LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
INLAND FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 80-85 RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ~5 DEGREES COOLER DUE TO
ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW SUPPLEMENTED BY THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION EACH AFTERNOON. THIS IS STILL 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
FOR A WEATHER EVENT SEVEN DAYS OUT, THERE IS SURPRISING MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING UP SUNDAY
NIGHT APRIL 5/6. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY (EASTER) SHOULD SWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY ADVECTING A
SWATH OF GULF MOISTURE OVERHEAD AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
ALOFT ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE 40-50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO GET A CLEAR HANDLE ON WHETHER ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THIS FRONT. FORECAST MODEST
MID AND UPPER WIND SPEEDS (STRONGEST ON THE CANADIAN, WEAKEST ON
THE GFS) CURRENTLY DON'T ARGUE FOR THIS BEING A GOOD SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP, BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE
DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THRUOUT THE 24 HR PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WHEN REDUCED VSBY
FROM PATCHY FOG IN TEMPO GROUPS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
TERMINALS. WILL ADVERTISE PERIODIC ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF SCU/AC
5000-7500 FT AGL ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WITH
ANOTHER CU FIELD AT 5000-7000 FT AGL DOMINATING THE MIDDAY THRU
EARLY EVENING HRS OF TUE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL RIDGE BACK TO THE W/SW ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SSE-SSW FLOW THRU
THE PERIOD, DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE OSCILLATING SFC RIDGE AXIS
SETS UP SHOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS DURING THE DAY AND AOB 4 KT AT NIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL BECOME
ENHANCED BY THE AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WITH COASTAL
TERMINALS GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15KT G20KT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WED/THU/FRI
MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS. SEA FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
BEGINNING FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN
FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY ONSHORE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINING AROUND 10 KT. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL EXIST MAINLY NEARSHORE AS SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4
FT RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 KT OR LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SEABREEZE WINDS
WILL LOCALLY INCREASE THIS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKING LIKE SOMETHING STRAIGHT
OUT OF SUMMER, WE ANTICIPATE A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FORECAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
WIND DIRECTIONS ARGUE FOR THE BIGGEST SHOWER THREAT TO REMAIN
NEAR CAPE FEAR WHERE SOME GULF STREAM SHOWERS COULD SURVIVE THE
JOURNEY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. FORECAST
SEAS ALSO LOOK LIKE SUMMER WITH AN 8 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SEA STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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