631
FXUS62 KILM 311100
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
2) THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THIS
WEEK WILL SUPPORT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN A
PATTERN THAT LOOKS STRAIGHT OUT OF JULY. TRUE, PARAMETERS LIKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS AREN'T AT MID
SUMMER LEVELS, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SUMMERLIKE.
FORECAST 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 5850 METERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR BOTH THE
CHARLESTON AND MOREHEAD CITY UPPER AIR SITES. A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 7500-12000 FEET AGL SHOULD CAP OFF SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, MEANING ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS THAT CAN FORM LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW WITH
LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
INLAND FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 80-85 RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ~5 DEGREES COOLER DUE TO
ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW SUPPLEMENTED BY THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION EACH AFTERNOON. THIS IS STILL 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ALIGN WITH A COLD FROPA LATE
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY
SHOULD SWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY ADVECTING A SWATH OF GULF MOISTURE
OVERHEAD AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENT
FORECASTS HAVE 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO GET A CLEAR HANDLE ON WHETHER ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THIS FRONT. FORECAST MODEST
MID AND UPPER WIND SPEEDS (STRONGEST ON THE CANADIAN, WEAKEST ON
THE GFS) CURRENTLY DON'T ARGUE FOR THIS BEING A GOOD SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP, BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE
DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER ANY LINGERING PATCHY
FOG BURNS OFF BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, A LAYER OF SHALLOW ALTOCUMULUS
IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BETWEEN 6-8KFT, RESULTING IN SCT TO BKN
CIGS AWAY FROM THE COAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY, LEAVING
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY LATE IN THE PERIOD. LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WED/THU/FRI. SEA FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEGINNING FOR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED WINDS TOWARDS SSE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY FROM 2-4 FT TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY DRIVEN BY A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7
SEC.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED
IN PLACE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS STAYING OFF TO
THE NORTH AND WEST, WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE S TO SE AT
ONLY 5-15 KT, WITH DAILY ENHANCEMENT NEARSHORE FROM THE SEA
BREEZE. SEAS STEADY AT 2-4 FT, MAINLY CONSISTING OF 7-9 SECOND
SE WAVES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS/ABW
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