451
FXUS62 KILM 311739
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
139 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT. FORECAST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
2) THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THEIR
DEPICTION OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SUPPORTING BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. USING HYSPLIT TO VIEW BACK-TRAJECTORIES
FROM THE GFS REVEALS THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT OF TROPICAL
ORIGIN, BUT INSTEAD IS CANADIAN AIR THAT MOVED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST 3 DAYS AGO AND HAS VENTURED NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ABOUT 30 DEGREES LATITUDE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. FOR
THIS REASON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
AND DAYTIME DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S EACH
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
THIS ALSO NUDGES THE FORECAST CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BY ERODING WHAT WAS ALREADY MARGINAL CAPE
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. IF WE GET AN ISOLATED
DAYTIME SHOWER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, IT'S MOST LIKELY TO BE
INLAND WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER AND THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE IN THE 80-84 RANGE
INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES. THIS IS
DUE TO SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW SUPPLEMENTED EACH DAY BY THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR T-STORMS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURPRISING AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, STILL ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE ALONG ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL
ADVECT A STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
DURING SUNDAY'S AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT GONE, THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. GFS MOS AGREES WITH NBM GUIDANCE WITH 50-70 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TWO WEEK-OBSERVED RAINFALL HAS RANGED
FROM 0 TO 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA (1.3 TO 1.6
INCHES BELOW NORMAL) SINCE MARCH 17 SO WE WOULD DEARLY LIKE TO
SEE SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO READ TOO MUCH INTO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST 700 MB WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING VARY FROM 25-45 KNOTS BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND
CANADIAN (THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN) WHICH IMPLIES VERY DIFFERENT
VALUES OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. WE'LL HOPEFULLY GET A CLEARER
PICTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SUCH
A PATTERN CAN LEAVE TERMINALS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, NOT
UNLIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING AT CRE. GUIDANCE HAS JUST
ABOUT UNILATERALLY AGREE THAT THERE IS NO REPEAT TONIGHT. THERE WAS
CONCERN EARLIER THAT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR BUT THIS TOO IS
NOT PORTRAYED IN MUCH GUIDANCE AND THE ONES THAT DO HAVE 2-4KFT CIGS
ARE NOT TYPICALLY THE MORE RELIABLE ONES SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
LOWERED AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
THU/FRI. SEA FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEGINNING FOR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGING WITH S TO SW FLOW AS IS TYPICAL MOST OF
THE SUMMER. WAVES WILL RUN ABOUT 3 FT AND RIGHT NEAR THE WIND
WAVE/SWELL CUSP OF 7 SECONDS THOUGH THE VERY SMALL POWER BUMP
SEEN IN SPECTRAL PLOTS AT 10 SECONDS COULD LINGER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CENTERED HUNDREDS OF
MILES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS, A RIDGELINE EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SIT ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ENSURE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT EACH
DAY WITH NEARSHORE BUMPS TO 10-15 KT EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4 FEET MAINLY IN
A 7-8 SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY. DESPITE BEING 5 DAYS IN
ADVANCE, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT ARRIVING AT
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
BOTH JANUARY AND FEBRUARY RAN 2 TO 4 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. MARCH HAS REVERSED THAT
TREND AND HEADING INTO THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH MARCH'S
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS RUN 3 TO 4 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
ASSUMING DAILY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND RUN 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WE SHOULD COMPLETELY ELIMINATE THE
REMAINING ACCUMULATED TEMPERATURE "DEFICIT" SINCE JANUARY 1.
LOCATION CURRENT YTD DEPARTURE FORECAST YTD DEPARTURE APRIL 5
WILMINGTON -0.1 F +0.6 F
N MYRTLE BEACH -0.2 F +0.3 F
FLORENCE -0.6 F +0.1 F
LUMBERTON -0.3 F +0.3 F
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/MBB
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...TRA/MBB
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