927
FXUS62 KILM 141022
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONCERN FOR ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK HAS
INCREASED. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES MAY
CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY WILL BRING A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
A 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL
TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE WITH
THE PREDICTED 500 MB PATTERN OR PREDICTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES,
LEADING TO A FORECAST THAT LOOKS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO WHAT WE
CONSTRUCTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY TO
OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS, BUT WARM AND
DRY MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING 90
DEGREES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY, THEN EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ~5 DEGREES
COOLER IN WILMINGTON AND ~10 DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES COMPARED
TO INLAND AREAS.
SPC HAS INCLUDED A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS IN THEIR FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY CITING LOW HUMIDITY, A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WIND, AND A UNUSUALLY HIGH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC: AN
INDEX UTILIZING FUEL MOISTURE TO INDICATE HOW ENERGETICALLY HEAT
WILL BE RELEASED BY BURNING WOODY FUELS.) OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS COMING UP LATER THIS WEEK:
.............WED APR 15...THU APR 16...FRI APR 17...SAT APR 18
WILMINGTON......92 IN 2006...90 IN 2006...89 IN 2006...93 IN 1976
LUMBERTON.......92 IN 2006...93 IN 1941...91 IN 2006...91 IN 1941
FLORENCE........94 IN 2006...90 IN 2006...93 IN 2006...93 IN 1981
N MYRTLE BEACH..90 IN 2006...87 IN 2006...87 IN 1995...89 IN 1976
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY
WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AIRMASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL
PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST
GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT ALSO SHOW ONLY A TENUOUS AND FADING CONNECTION
TO ANY GULF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE LIMITED
TO JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLY TOO LARGE FOR THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT.
AMONG THE DOZENS OF MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITHIN THE NBM,
ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THEM SHOW AT LEAST .01" OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. INCREASING THE
POP THRESHOLD TO .10" CUTS THIS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY TO MEANINGFULLY ALLEVIATE DETERIORATING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THE ARRIVAL OF A COOLER
AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY'S PREDICTED HIGHS ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TAF PERIOD. HAVE KEPT ANY
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE TAFS. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OR SO IN STRONG AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS HEADING INTO WED DUE
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE AND A BIT STRONGER WINDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOG HEADING
INTO SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
WITH PREDOMINANTLY SW WINDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME
GUSTIER AND INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING THE WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE SW DIRECTION AND
LIGHTEN. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WIND WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON AND A LONGER PERIOD ESE SWELL MIXING
IN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE
10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED
TO CREATE LOCALIZED INCREASES TO ALMOST 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. IT'S A VERY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN.
AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BERMUDA SWELL AT A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, TOPPED OFF BY SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP THAT
COULD BECOME ROUGH FOR KAYAKERS AND SMALL BOATS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE COMBINED SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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