146
FXUS62 KILM 142130
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
530 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HORRY COUNTY FOR FINE
PARTICULATES DUE TO THE LARGE WILDFIRE IN SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTY. THE AQA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES MAY
CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY WILL BRING A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
A 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY SOILS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH IN THE LOW 30S OR UPPER 20S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING 90
DEGREES INLAND TOMORROW, THEN EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS
PLUS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ~5
DEGREES COOLER IN WILMINGTON AND ~10 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
BEACHES COMPARED TO INLAND AREAS.
SPC HAS INCLUDED A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS IN THEIR FIRE
WEATHER OUTLOOK TOMORROW CITING LOW HUMIDITY, A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WIND, AND A UNUSUALLY HIGH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
(ERC: AN INDEX UTILIZING FUEL MOISTURE TO INDICATE HOW
ENERGETICALLY HEAT WILL BE RELEASED BY BURNING WOODY FUELS.)
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RECORD HIGHS COMING UP LATER THIS WEEK:
.............WED APR 15...THU APR 16...FRI APR 17...SAT APR 18
WILMINGTON......92 IN 2006...90 IN 2006...89 IN 2006...93 IN 1976
LUMBERTON.......92 IN 2006...93 IN 1941...91 IN 2006...91 IN 1941
FLORENCE........94 IN 2006...90 IN 2006...93 IN 2006...93 IN 1981
N MYRTLE BEACH..90 IN 2006...87 IN 2006...87 IN 1995...89 IN 1976
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY
WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AIRMASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY.
THE LATEST GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT ALSO SHOW ONLY A TENUOUS
AND FADING CONNECTION TO ANY GULF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT MAY BE LIMITED TO JUST A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY TOO LARGE FOR THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT.
AMONG THE DOZENS OF MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITHIN THE NBM, ABOUT
30 PERCENT OF THEM SHOW AT LEAST .01" OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. INCREASING THE POP
THRESHOLD TO .10" CUTS THIS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO MEANINGFULLY ALLEVIATE DETERIORATING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THE ARRIVAL OF A COOLER
AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY'S PREDICTED HIGHS ARE
IN THE LOW 70S, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND GUSTS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
SEA BREEZE. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES COULD IMPACT VISIBILITY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIOR TO LATE MORNING MIXING DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR
ANY RESTRICTIONS TO BECOME VFR HAZE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE
SEVERITY OF RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOG HEADING
INTO SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINS QUIET
CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE COAST, WINDS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
INLETS COULD BE CHOPPY. SEAS 2-3 FEET, UP TO 4 ON THE 20 NM
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST ZONE DUE TO A LINGERING 3-FOOT
EASTERLY SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND THE S TO
SW WIND DIRECTION CONTINUING, WITH SPEEDS VARYING FROM AROUND
10 KT DURING THE MORNINGS TO AS MUCH AS 15-20 KT NEARSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO DAILY SEABREEZES. 2-3
FT SEAS WILL CONSIST OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY 8-9 SECOND SWELL
PLUS LOCAL 4-5 SECOND WIND WAVES. NEXT CHANCE OF LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND SCA CONDITIONS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT WITH A COLD FROPA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
SCZ054-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21
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