283
FXUS62 KILM 150645
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE NEW AIRMASS BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT APPEARS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS THOUGHT YESTERDAY.
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY WEATHER MAY
CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY WILL BRING A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY
WEATHER MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD GET
BEATEN DOWN TEMPORARILY BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
THIS TRULY IS JUST AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
IMPACT AT OR BELOW 700 MB EXCEPT FOR A WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE. UNUSUAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR +16C TODAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY, THEN WARMING TO ALMOST +18C ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS ONE FINAL TIME. THIS WOULD BE AT RECORD HIGH
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE MOREHEAD CITY UPPER AIR
SITE ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY WEBPAGE.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS LUMBERTON AND THE PEE DEE REGION
SHOULD TOUCH 90 DEGREES TODAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY BEFORE
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR. ALONG THE COAST, ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC WINDS AND/OR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS.
DESCENDING AIR WITHIN THE RIDGE AND LACK OF ATLANTIC INFLOW
(EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS
TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S EACH DAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING TO 25-30 PERCENT. SEVEN-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ZERO,
AND TOTALS OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS ARE ONLY 10-30 PERCENT OF
NORMAL, LEADING TO INTENSIFYING DROUGHT AND WORSENING SOIL AND
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS MAY
CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
...............WED APR 15...THU APR 16...FRI APR 17
SAT APR 18
WILMINGTON......92 IN 2006...90 IN 2006...89 IN 2006...93 IN 1976
LUMBERTON.......92 IN 2006...93 IN 1941...91 IN 2006...91 IN 1941
FLORENCE........94 IN 2006...90 IN 2006...93 IN 2006...93 IN 1981
N MYRTLE BEACH..90 IN 2006...87 IN 2006...87 IN 1995...89 IN 1976
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY
WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A COOLER AIRMASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
BIG CHANGES WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY
CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF MODELS FOR DAYS
NOW. MORNING SUNSHINE WITHIN THE WARM PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
AT LEAST SMALL, UNCAPPED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT, DEEP
MOISTURE IS NOTABLY LACKING. IF WE'RE LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ON SUNDAY, THEY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WITHIN A THINNING RIBBON OF 850-700 MB GULF MOISTURE DRAGGED
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20-30
PERCENT AND WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AS COLDER, DRIER AIR PUSHES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS HAVE BEEN TOWARD
A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY. RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE NOW SHOW MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, AND PERHAPS EVEN TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP
INTO THE 40S GIVING OUR AIR CONDITIONERS A WELCOME BREAK AFTER
THE PAST WEEK OF UNUSUAL HEAT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES COULD IMPACT VISIBILITY
INTERMITTENTLY THIS MORNING NEAR COAST, BUT WILL MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING AS MIXING DEEPENS ENOUGH FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS TO BECOME
VFR HAZE. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE S TO SW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOG HEADING
INTO SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN S TO SW WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH A BACKING FROM SW TO S AND SPIKE IN
WINDS NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. INLETS COULD BE
CHOPPY. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT FEET WITH A LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL MIXING IN.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
10-12 KNOTS, THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NEARSHORE DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. GFS AND NAM-BASED
MARINE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
JUST OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL CONSIST OF A MIX OF LOCAL WIND CHOP WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
10 SECOND SWELL, AVERAGING ABOUT 3 FEET IN HEIGHT.
BIG CHANGES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20
KNOTS, PERHAPS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD TO 3-6 FEET WITHIN THE STRONGER
WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-058-
059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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