496
FXUS62 KILM 151820
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY WEATHER MAY
CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING SUNDAY WITH
LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS
WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY
WEATHER MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST NC THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
ACTIVE FIRE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. MINIMUM RH WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S OR LOWER 30S EACH AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR COASTAL AREAS
WHERE AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH IN THE 40S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN WEAK, BUT SEVEN-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
ZERO. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS ARE ONLY 10-30
PERCENT OF NORMAL, LEADING TO INTENSIFYING DROUGHT AND
WORSENING SOIL AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS MAY CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD GET
BEATEN DOWN TEMPORARILY BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
THIS TRULY IS JUST AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
IMPACT AT OR BELOW 700 MB EXCEPT FOR A WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE
BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE. UNUSUAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR +16C THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN WARMING TO ALMOST +18C ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS ONE FINAL TIME. THIS WOULD BE AT RECORD HIGH
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE MOREHEAD CITY UPPER AIR
SITE ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY WEBPAGE.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS LUMBERTON AND THE PEE DEE
REGION SHOULD TOUCH 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR. ALONG THE COAST, ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC WINDS AND/OR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS.
RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
...............THU APR 16...FRI APR 17
SAT APR 18
WILMINGTON......90 IN 2006...89 IN 2006...93 IN 1976
LUMBERTON.......93 IN 1941...91 IN 2006...91 IN 1941
FLORENCE........90 IN 2006...93 IN 2006...93 IN 1981
N MYRTLE BEACH..87 IN 2006...87 IN 1995...89 IN 1976
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING
SUNDAY WITH LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL ALLOW A
COOLER AIRMASS WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING MOISTURE LIMITATIONS
AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING MONDAY. NBM
PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL GRAPHICS SHOW ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR >0.01
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
APPEARS LIMITED AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WITH DEEPER DRYING EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS
(POTENTIALLY 20-25 MPH) SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN GIVEN THE
DROUGHT STATUS.
DURING MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
DURING MONDAY PROVIDING A PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.
HIGHS DURING MONDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 70/LOWER 70S
EVEN WITH FULL SUN. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY BE MOST
EFFECTIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. DURING
TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD.
SMOKE COULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. PREDOMINANT S AND SW WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BEHIND
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR
FOG HEADING INTO SUNRISE EACH MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINS A QUIET
AND PERSISTENT FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR THE COAST, WINDS
WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. INLETS COULD BE CHOPPY. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT FEET WITH
A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL MIXING IN.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SWLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF
A WEAK INLAND SURFACE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SOME BACKING EACH DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE. A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS DURING SUNDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER,
AND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEFING PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THAT TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM AN
OFFSHORE DIRECTION TO NE-ELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER NC/VA AND GRADUALLY OFFSHORE.
SWLY WINDS COULD INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSES LIGHT/VARIABLE
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 FT OR LESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT AT TIMES COULD REACH 4-6' WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-058-
059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...21
DISCUSSION...21/TRA/SRP
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/SRP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page