665
FXUS62 KILM 170550
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY WEATHER MAY
CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY
WEATHER MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A MODEST SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER
TODAY, HELPING NUDGE A SUBTLE COLD FRONT DOWN TO THE COAST BY
MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY DISCERNIBLE AIRMASS
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AND INLAND HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
TOWARD 90 DEGREES, ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW DAILY RECORDS AT
FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON.
THE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DELAY
IN THE INLAND PROGRESS OF THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
REDUCTION IN COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL GIVE WILMINGTON A
CHANCE TO RUN TOWARD AT LEAST TYING A RECORD HIGH TODAY.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY:
...............FRI APR 17
SAT APR 18
WILMINGTON......89 IN 2006...93 IN 1976
LUMBERTON.......91 IN 2006...91 IN 1941
FLORENCE........93 IN 2006...93 IN 1981
N MYRTLE BEACH..87 IN 1995...89 IN 1967
ANOTHER FACTOR TO WATCH CLOSELY WILL BE DRY AIR BROUGHT DOWN
FROM ALOFT VIA DEEP DAYTIME MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH 8000-9000
FEET AGL. DEWPOINTS INLAND FROM THE SEABREEZE WILL FALL INTO THE
50S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN TO NEAR 25 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY MAY BE ALLEVIATED IN PART BY LIGHT
WIND SPEEDS.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD TOMORROW WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING BY ABOUT 20
METERS VERSUS TODAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO
+17C SATURDAY, HIGHS INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S - AGAIN
THREATENING RECORDS AT FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STILL-LOW HUMIDITY COULD
ENHANCE ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
H5 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND OFFSHORE DURING EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BASIN AVERAGE QPF REMAINS LIMITED GIVEN THE
LIMITED RETURN FLOW PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL AND QUICK
PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >0.01" HAVE
INCREASED SOME RECENTLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC ZONES.
EITHER WAY, ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY
DROUGHT RELIEF ESPECIALLY WITH DEEP DRYING EXPECTED BY 21Z
SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY. BASED ON THURSDAY'S UPDATED DROUGHT MONITOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A SEVERE DROUGHT,
ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF MARLBORO COUNTY IN AN EXTREME DROUGHT.
ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN A
BRIEF RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE AIR-MASS IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHELTERED/COLD SPOTS
COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COMING 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST BY
12-14Z, BUT WILL GET TURNED AROUND BY THIS AFTERNOON'S
SEABREEZE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE WINDS WHICH COULD
REACH 12 KNOTS AT KCRE AND KMYR AFTER 18-19Z, LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES BETWEEN 8-10 AM THIS MORNING,
BUT THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING BY NOON SHOULD
OVERWHELM ANY BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS. NEARSHORE WINDS
SHOULD TURN FIRMLY SOUTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
10-15 KNOTS.
YESTERDAY'S STRONG SEABREEZE WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 4 FEET EARLY
THIS MORNING. A 2 FOOT 9 SECOND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL WIND CHOP FOR SEAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN
THE 3 FOOT RANGE, SUBSIDING TO ONLY 2 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES FROM
SHORE TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SWLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND AROUND 3 FT OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
RELATIVELY WARMER SSTS WILL ALLOW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT TO INCREASE. GUSTY N TO NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIMEFRAME. WINDS FARTHER
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN HIGHER THROUGH A GOOD PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE N-NELY FETCH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STEEPER WAVES NEAR/ALONG
THE GULF STREAM.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING MONDAY, THOUGH A MINOR
SURGE COULD BUMP THINGS UP A NOTCH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING AGAIN DURING TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/SRP
DISCUSSION...TRA/SRP
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/SRP
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