424
FXUS62 KILM 180621
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
SATURDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS CONTINUING.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY WILL BRING A BIT OF RAIN
BUT NO DROUGHT RELIEF AS WELL AS AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS
CONTINUING.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING NEARLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GET JUST A LITTLE BIT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY
NOON AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON, REACHING A
FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE PRIOR TO SUNSET. HERE'S A LOOK AT
THE CURRENT RECORDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT APRIL 18:
WILMINGTON,NC (KILM)......93 IN 1976
N MYRTLE BEACH,SC (KCRE)..89 IN 1967
FLORENCE,SC (KFLO)........93 IN 1981
LUMBERTON,NC (KLBT).......91 IN 1941
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE COLUMN SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR A FEW/SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS TO POP UP AT 5000-8000
FT. OTHER THAN THAT, EXTREMELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. DIURNAL
MIXING MIDDAY THRU MID-AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN AT
THE SURFACE INLAND, RESULTING IN RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30%.
HOWEVER, AN ACTIVE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH HIER
SFC DEWPOINTS INLAND AND SHOULD COUNTER THIS MIXING LATER IN THE
AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. THE SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN THE BI-STATE BURN BAN REMAINING
IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ITS GETTING TO THE POINT WHERE
EVEN AN IMPROPERLY DISREGARDED CIGARETTE BUTT COULD IGNITE A
FIRE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY WILL BRING
A BIT OF RAIN BUT NO DROUGHT RELIEF AS WELL AS AN END TO THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS, SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL, AND THUS
WE ARE NOT CONCERNED FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. IF
THERE IS TO BE ONE IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE JUST
INLAND OF THE SE NC COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO VERY
EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
UNFORTUNATELY, NOT EXPECTING ANY DROUGHT RELIEF WITH "HIGH END"
RAIN AMOUNTS ONLY UP TO ~0.4", MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SE NC.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER
30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND RURAL
SPOTS AS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE VALUES. MON NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR PRACTICALLY WORST CASE
(I.E., NBM 1ST PERCENTILE) TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WHICH WOULD IMPLY A
RISK FOR SOME FROST SO THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL WANT
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THRU THE 24 HR FCST PERIOD. FEW ALTOCU EARLY THIS MORNING,
OTHERWISE SCT/BKN DECK OF THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD. THROWN IN FROM MIDDAY THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE A
FEW/SCT HIGH CU OR LOW ALTOCU. CALM TO SW WINDS AOB 5 KT TO
DOMINATE THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTN, THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DOMINATING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH SUN MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE
MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON SUN. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SSW-SW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT EVENING, EXCEPT PUSHING 15G20KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, IE WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST, SAT AFTN AND EVENING DUE
TO AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. LATER SAT NIGHT, AN ACTIVE SSW-SW 25
TO 30 KT LLJ (925MB) TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL FURTHER INCREASE
WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WARMER ATL WATERS
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE THIS MORNING,
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT THRU THE DAY. AND 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT, WITH
THE HIER END OF THIS RANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE 20-60 NM OUT
OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE
SEAS SPECTRUM BUT WITH A CONTINUED ONGOING AND UNDERLYING 8+
SECOND PERIOD SE SWELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED SW WINDS EXPECTED SUN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS NEARING SCA LEVELS LATER SUN BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT RAISING A HEADLINE, ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT.
COULD SEE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BEYOND 20 NM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT ALSO NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WATCH AT THIS
JUNCTURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE ANOTHER
BRIEF SURGE COMES FROM THE NE AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH, BUT
SHOULDN'T REACH SCA LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL
INCREASE A BIT WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO AN
INLAND TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES HOWEVER.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/RJB
DISCUSSION...DCH/RJB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/RJB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page