330
FXUS62 KILM 181035
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS,
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TO WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING NEARLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GET JUST A LITTLE BIT WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY
NOON AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON, REACHING A
FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE PRIOR TO SUNSET. HERE'S A LOOK AT
THE CURRENT RECORDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT APRIL 18:
WILMINGTON,NC (KILM)......93 IN 1976
N MYRTLE BEACH,SC (KCRE)..89 IN 1967
FLORENCE,SC (KFLO)........93 IN 1981
LUMBERTON,NC (KLBT).......91 IN 1941
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE COLUMN SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR A FEW/SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS TO POP UP AT 5000-8000
FT. OTHER THAN THAT, EXTREMELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. DIURNAL
MIXING MIDDAY THRU MID-AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN AT
THE SURFACE INLAND, RESULTING IN RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30%.
HOWEVER, AN ACTIVE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH HIER
SFC DEWPOINTS INLAND AND SHOULD COUNTER THIS MIXING LATER IN THE
AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. THE SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN THE BI-STATE BURN BAN REMAINING
IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ITS GETTING TO THE POINT WHERE
EVEN AN IMPROPERLY DISREGARDED CIGARETTE BUTT COULD IGNITE A
FIRE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TO WELL OFFSHORE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
H5 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY WILL DRIVE
A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND OFF THE MAINLAND
TO WELL OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
WEAK TSTORM PARAMETERS PROGGED. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
RESULT IN QPF LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES, WHICH THIS MAY EVEN BE TOO
HIGH. THIS WILL NOT EVEN SATISFY THE THIRST OF THE VEGETATION OF
THE ONGOING GROWING SEASON. IN ESSENCE, THE SEVERE/EXTREME
DROUGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, CAA UNDER GUSTY NW-NNE
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BECOMING
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MON. THE END RESULT WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME OF YEAR, NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
SHELTERED/COLD SPOTS COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR LOWS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING UP TO
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK.
AND WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO PCPN IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THRU THE 24 HR FCST PERIOD. FEW ALTOCU EARLY THIS MORNING,
OTHERWISE SCT/BKN DECK OF THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD. THROWN IN DURING THE MIDDAY HRS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL BE A FEW/SCT HIGH CU OR LOW ALTOCU. CALM TO SW WINDS AOB 5
KT TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND THRU THE AFTN,
THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DOMINATING. SSW 25 TO 30 KT LLJ LATER TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED IN TURN NEGATING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR INTO SUN MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE
MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON SUN WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SSW-SW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT EVENING, EXCEPT PUSHING 15G20KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, IE WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST, SAT AFTN AND EVENING DUE
TO AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. LATER SAT NIGHT, AN ACTIVE SSW-SW 25
TO 30 KT LLJ (925MB) TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL FURTHER INCREASE
WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WARMER ATL WATERS
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE THIS MORNING,
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT THRU THE DAY. AND 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT, WITH
THE HIER END OF THIS RANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE 20-60 NM OUT
OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE
SEAS SPECTRUM BUT WITH A CONTINUED ONGOING AND UNDERLYING 8+
SECOND PERIOD SE SWELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKING AT SW WINDS
INCREASING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN FROM BOTH A LLJET WITH 25-30 KT
SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK UP TO 925MB AND A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
EXPANDING/PIVOTING UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY WILL
HELP DRIVE THE COLD FRONT TO THE CAROLINA COASTS BY MIDDAY SUN
AND TO WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING IT, FURTHER BLOSSOMING
AS THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE WARMER ATL WATERS. LOOKING AT A
DECENT WINDSHIFT, FROM SW-NW THEN TO THE NNE-NE AT SCA
THRESHOLDS SUN NIGHT AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING
MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE UPPER
TROF'S AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON, ALLOWING FOR A
SECONDARY CFP MONDAY EVENING ACCOMPANIED WITH LESS FANFARE THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR. SFC HIGH TO FOLLOW AND RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
MON NIGHT THRU TUE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/RJB
DISCUSSION...DCH/RJB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/RJB
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