039
FXUS62 KILM 191839
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
239 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSIONS. MINOR/NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING IS STILL FORECAST
WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND AT THE
BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED
DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEK
WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
NOTICEABLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO RETURN TEMPS WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES (MAINLY MON/WED/FRI/SAT), AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT, CONCERNS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL CONTINUE. OVER NEXT
WEEKEND, A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THIS
COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TOOLS PAINT A
GENERAL 30-40% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (AT LEAST 0.01") ON
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD FOR
THESE CHANCES. DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE TOOLS ALL SHOW MIXED
SIGNALS AND INCONSISTENT TRENDS GIVEN A COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL BE IN PROGRESS, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ATTM, BRINGING GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS TO AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE THOSE WINDS DIMINISH BY EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITHIN 20 NM, WINDS SHIFTING TO N TO NW 15 TO A
SOMETIMES SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME N
TO NE AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING BACK TO
SW ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY FRONT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FT MONDAY.
FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT, WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY TO
5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME NW. SEAS WILL RUN 4 TO 6
FT WITH 7 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WIND SHIFT EARLY MONDAY NIGHT TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE SUBSIDING AND VEERING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE,
EXPECT WINDS TO FALL BACK TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY,
WITH SPEEDS RISING BACK TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA
AND LIFTS AWAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL VARY WITH THE WINDS. EXPECT PEAK HEIGHTS OF 2-
4 FT DURING PERIODS OF INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES AS LOW AS 1-2 FT
DURING PERIODS OF WEAKER WINDS. WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM, ALTHOUGH 1-2 FT
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7-8 SEC ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARRIVING LATE ON
TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW/31
AVIATION...31
MARINE...ABW/31
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