090
FXUS62 KILM 202320
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
720 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK
DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT.
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST SC AND
SOUTHEAST NC, WHILE EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) IS TRYING TO BUILD IN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PEE DEE REGION. SEE THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR
MORE DETAILS
(DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/CURRENTMAP/STATEDROUGHTMONITOR.ASPX?SOUTHEAST).
DRY FUELS ARE APLENTY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (I.E., DRY PLANTS OR
OTHER ORGANIC MATERIAL). RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WON'T HAVE A
PROBLEM DROPPING DOWN TOWARDS 25-30% EACH AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN
THE MORE INLAND AREAS. WEDNESDAY IN PARTICULAR COULD HAVE THE
BIGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ON ACCOUNT OF INCREASED WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH, AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. BURN BANS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAROLINAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ALL
OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS ILLEGAL, PER STATE LAW.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRING THE NEXT RAIN
CHANCES INTO TOWN BY THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS
MESSY IN PAINTING THE PICTURE, BUT EVEN SO, NOTHING LOOKS LIKE A
WASHOUT. NO SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF TO BE FOUND.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/..
VFR. WINDS REMAIN CAPPED AT 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS VEER
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT FLO AND LBT TUESDAY WHILE A HEALTHY
SEABREEZE AFFECTS ILM, CRE, AND MYR FROM MIDDAY ON.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH S TO SW WINDS VEERING TO N THEN NE BY TUESDAY
MORNING GUSTING UP TO ~20 KT. 10-15 KT WINDS THEN FOR TUESDAY
WITH AN AFTN SEA BREEZE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVER NC THEN OFFSHORE. SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE, UP TO 5 FT 20-60 NM OFFSHORE, LARGELY CONSISTING
OF 7-8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES FOLLOWING THE COLD
FROPA TONIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...START OFF WITH A GENTLE BREEZE OUT
OF THE ESE THAT GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS STAY LOCKED IN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY,
IF NOT OCCASIONALLY VEERING TO THE WSW AT TIMES. EXPECT A MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE TO PICK UP WEDNESDAY, AS A SUBTLE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SCALES BACK TOWARDS A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY LOCKED IN ON 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, UP TO 3-4 FT ALONG THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MAS/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page