495
FXUS62 KILM 031712
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
112 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TUE THRU THU BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO SOUTHERN
SC. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. FOLLOWED
BY A NICE WARMUP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUMMER LIKE TEMPS
ESPECIALLY WED AND THU WHERE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL BE COMMON. WITH THE SUN NOW HIER IN THE SKY GIVEN
SUMMER SOLSTICE ROUGHLY 50 DAYS AWAY, DID ADD A FEW DEGREES TO
THE HIGHS FOR MON THRU THU, ESPECIALLY WITH FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY
WESTERLY. A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF DROPPING OUT OF CANADA TO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED, WILL DRIVE TO THE
EAST AND AID IN PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILM CWA
AND OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU. AHEAD OF IT WILL SEE A MODEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDAY THRU EARLY
EVENING TIME SLOT WHICH WILL AID CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.
INDIVIDUAL TSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEPOSIT A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, UNFORTUNATELY IN A MORE LOCALIZED ARENA AS
OPPOSED TO THE PCPN EVENT THIS PAST SUNDAY WHERE IT WAS MORE
WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH W-NW WINDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING. WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT S TO SW
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE EARLY-MORNING
STRATUS ALONG WITH TRANSIENT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND BACK THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS, WITH SPEEDS
FALLING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED SEAS IN
THE 2-5 FT RANGE IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 4-7 FT IN THE
20-60NMI ZONES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT TO 1-2 FT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND 2-3 FT IN THE 20-60NMI WATERS. THE
PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7-8 SEC WHILE NORTHERLY WIND WAVES
ALSO CONTRIBUTE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS MONDAY, WILL SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE
AND EAST FROM THE CAROLINAS TUE THRU THU, BUT AT THE SAME TIME,
RIDGING BACK TO THE WSW AND ONSHORE BETWEEN CAPE ROMAIN AND THE
MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THIS POSITIONING WILL INITIALLY
HAVE WINDS SOUTHERLY MON, THEN FROM THE SSW-SW MON NIGHT THRU
LATE THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AND ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THU
WITH SPORADIC GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS,
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DUE TO THE TIGHTENING SFC
PG. THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT WITH POST FRONTAL
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS, LIKELY CONTINUING THE SCA THREAT AND
POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS OFFSHORE FOR A SHORT PERIOD. SEAS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT MON INTO TUE, INCREASING
TO 2 TO 5 FT BY LATER WED AND 3 TO 6 FT THU. FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, GENERALLY ADD 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FT ESPECIALLY WED THRU
THU. SEAS GENERALLY GOVERNED BY SHORT PERIOD WAVES THIS PERIOD
EXCEPT MON INTO TUE WHERE AN UNDERLYING SMALL E-ESE LONG PERIOD
SWELL TO PERSIST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH
DISCUSSION...DCH
AVIATION...31
MARINE...DCH/ABW
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