031
FXUS62 KILM 032322
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY.
WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFFSHORE WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WED
WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE WED INTO THURS WITH
PERSISTENT AND DEEPER SW FLOW. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP IN
THE 60S BY WED AFTN WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING AROUND ONE
AND A HALF INCH. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF ISOLATED AND MORE
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY INLAND OF THE COAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE CHC OF SHWRS
BACK IN THE FORECAST POSSIBLY BY WED BUT DEFINITELY BY THURS AS
DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT CLOSER. BY
THURS AFTN, THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE
POSSIBLY STRONGER TSTORMS, BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LESS
COVERAGE ON THURS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRI WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER
THE COMING 24 HOURS. ASIDE FROM SEABREEZE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
AFFECTING KCRE AND KMYR EARLY THIS EVENING, LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. ANOTHER SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AT KILM, KCRE,
AND KMYR.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE EARLY-MORNING
STRATUS ALONG WITH TRANSIENT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITHIN 20 NM, LIGHT N TO NW WINDS WILL VEER TO
S TO SW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT BY MONDAY.
FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT, LIGHT N TO NW WINDS WILL VEER TO S TO SW
BY MONDAY. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
3 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY THROUGH THURS WITH A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP SLOWLY TUES
THROUGH THUR, ESPECIALLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURS. ALSO WILL SEE A SPIKE IN WINDS
AND BACKING OF WINDS NEAR SHORE IN AFTN SEA BREEZE INTO MIDWEEK.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AND ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THU WITH SPORADIC
GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS THU EVENING/NIGHT WITH
POST FRONTAL GUSTY NW TO N WINDS LIKELY CONTINUING THE SCA
THREAT AND POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS OFFSHORE.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH TUE MORNING,
INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT ON WED AND 3 TO 6 FT THU. SHOULD SEE UP
TO 7 FT IN OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 30 NM THROUGH LATE THURS.
SEAS WILL DROP ON FRI AS WINDS DIMINISH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RGZ/31
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