586
FXUS62 KILM 041839
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
239 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH PERSISTENT AND DEEPER S/SW FLOW. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
BACK UP IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACHING AROUND ONE AND A HALF INCHES. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON ANY RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...CAN'T RULE OUT ANY VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH
BROAD-SCALE SUB-20% POPS. HIGH RAIN CHANCES (LIKELY-CATEGORICAL)
RETURN THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT CLOSER. BY THE AFTN, THERE WILL BE BETTER
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OFF THE CAROLINAS
COAST. SLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WHERE WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING AFTER THE DISSIPATION OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH ONLY FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CU, AND SOME PASSING THIN CI.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE EARLY
MORNING STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME RELATIVELY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
INVOF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN
FOR FRIDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SEA
BREEZE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF RIDGING WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY A SEA BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST. SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY 1-2 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
2-3 FT IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS. NORTHEAST SWELL ENERGY WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
DOMINATING THE SPECTRUM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SSW FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF OFFSHORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS THEN RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT AND/OR SEAS UP TO 6 FT
LATE THURSDAY OVER THE 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS. AS USUAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WORSE OVER THE 20-60 NM WATERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED AS THE NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE MUCH HIGHER IN
MAGNITUDE THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21
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