165
FXUS62 KILM 050950
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
550 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY.
WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH PERSISTENT AND DEEPER S/SW FLOW. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
BACK UP IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACHING AROUND ONE AND A HALF INCHES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...CAN'T RULE OUT ANY VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH
BROAD-SCALE SUB-20% POPS. HIGH RAIN CHANCES (LIKELY-
CATEGORICAL) RETURN THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT CLOSER. BY THE AFTN, THERE WILL BE
BETTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MOSTLY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE. WILL MAINLY SEE SOME CIRRUS FROM
CONVECTION THAT IS FAR UPSTREAM, AND MAY SEE A FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT OF THE SEABREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE EARLY
MORNING STRATUS ALONG WITH SOME RELATIVELY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
WITHIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND 10-15 KTS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE SEABREEZE WILL INCREASE SPEEDS A NOTCH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
FURTHER. SEAS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 2 FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 3 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS, INCREASE BY A FOOT TONIGHT.
WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SSW FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
OFFSHORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT AND/OR SEAS UP TO 6 FT LATE
THURSDAY OVER THE 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS. AS USUAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WORSE OVER THE 20-60 NM WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED, AS THE NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE HIGHER IN MAGNITUDE THAN
THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MAS/SRP
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