620
FXUS62 KILM 060616
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
216 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN LOWERED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE
RAISED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES STILL IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT CLOSER. INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO THE EARLY TIMING OF THE PRECIP,
CLOUD COVER AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT.
MAY SEE A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RUN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH, WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF POSSIBLE CLOUDS IN OUR AREA. BY SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
ARE NOT ALIGNED WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES
INCLUDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
SPOTS OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY LATER ON SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SSW TO SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH GUSTS STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT BY 14- 15Z THIS MORNING. THESE GUSTS REACH THEIR PEAK
OF 20-23 KTS BY 18- 21Z THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. TYPICAL AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY BECOME
BKN AT 4000-5000 FT AT TIMES, WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUD CEILINGS LOOK TO THICKEN UP
AND PERHAPS DROP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT NO
THREAT TO THE FLIGHT CATEGORY JUST YET.
EXTENDED FORECAST...CEILINGS MAY COME DOWN INTO MVFR ACROSS KFLO
AND KLBT GOING INTO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, DUE TO RAIN
AND STORMS WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE CHANCES COME DOWN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT COME BACK UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY. MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FOG OR LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNINGS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SSW VEERS SLIGHTLY
TO THE SW BY THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS MAY
APPROACH NEAR GALE OVER THESE SAME OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT,
BUT A WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. SEAS AT 2-3 FT
WILL INCREASE UP TO 3-4 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM,
4-5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WINDS AND SEAS RAMP UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR
GUSTS TO 25 KT AND/OR SEAS UP TO 6 FT LATE THURSDAY OVER THE
0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS - NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A THIRD
PERIOD HEADLINE ATTM. AS USUAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WORSE
OVER THE 20-60 NM WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A GALE
WARNING WILL BE NEEDED, AS THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE HIGHER IN MAGNITUDE THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS.
MARINE CONDITIONS (WINDS AND SEAS) IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page