816
FXUS62 KILM 061851
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THESE
SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO TWO DISTINCT WINDOWS. A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION WEST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH REMNANT CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TOMORROW, BUT MODELED INSTABILITY AND LIGHTNING
PROBABILITIES HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT DOWNSHEAR VENTING OF ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO A COLD POOL AHEAD OF THE UPDRAFTS. THIS WOULD FORCE
THE CONVECTION TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD IN SEARCH OF SUSTENANCE.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE LOW, THEY ARE NOT ZERO
DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT. SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME OF THAT
MOMENTUM TOWARD THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE (MORE
LIKELY EAST OF I-95 AND SOUTH OF US-74).
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES DECREASE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON (AFTER
18Z), BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A "CLEAN" END TO RAIN CHANCES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXIST IN A WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY AFTER 02Z
WHEN THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. DRY AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING A DEFINITE DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WAVES OF ENERGY WITHIN A BROADER UPR-LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR NOW, THE HIGHEST POPS ARE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND
ALONG AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AS WELL. WILL FINE-TUNE THE DETAILS AND TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER
IN TIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. CIGS BEGIN TO DESCEND TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY
SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE SHOWERS BEGIN PRIOR TO 12Z.
MIXED GUIDANCE WITH CLIMO IN A WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW, MAINTAINING
VFR PRIOR TO SHOWERS, MVFR AS SHOWERS MOVE EASTWARD BUT FLOW
REMAINS SW, SUB-IFR ONCE WINDS TURN NW-ERLY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
REACH THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS MORE
LIKELY AFTER THE 18Z PERIOD EAST OF I-95.
EXTENDED FORECAST... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE OF
RAIN ON SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE COAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TODAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. WINDS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS COULD GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT.
SEAS OF 3-4 FEET TONIGHT INCREASE TO 4-5 FEET ON THURSDAY.
GRADIENT WINDS AND SEAS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ILLUSTRATED
A BRIEF INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WHICH COINCIDES CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION IS LOW. ANY POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE
HANDLED WITH CONVECTIVE WARNINGS DUE TO THE BREVITY OF THE
THREAT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... THE CAA FOLLOWING THE COLD
FROPA LATE THURSDAY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, SO WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY HIGHER THAN THEY ARE
THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGH STAYING OFFSHORE. WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS
WILL REMAINS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS WELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...21
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/21
DISCUSSION...MAS/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21
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