293
FXUS62 KILM 070655
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
255 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
2) A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
3) DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STRUGGLING TO GET INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA, AS DENOTED BY A LACK OF WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS HAVE
OVERSPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THESE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOTED. A COUPLE WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. HIGH-RES
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR (OVER 0.75" IN SOME SPOTS), BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED IN NATURE. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN IN BETWEEN
THE LULLS THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY STARTS TO INCREASE BY 10-11 AM THIS MORNING, BUT AMPLE
CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED COLD POOLING KEEPS THE SBCAPE WELL UNDER
1000 J/KG. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE SOUTH IN
LOWCOUNTRY, WHICH LOOKS TO "STEAL" THE THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY (TYPICAL
FOR THESE PARTS). BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS GET UP TOWARDS 50-60 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BRING THAT ENERGY TO
THE SURFACE AS A STRONG WIND GUST. AREAS EAST OF I-95 AND SOUTH OF
US-74 STILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT CAPTURING THESE GUSTY SHOWERS.
RAIN CHANCES COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S NOT
A CLEAN BREAK, SO TO SPEAK. DRY AIR STARTS INTRUDING IN THE 500-700
MB LAYER, BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE PERSISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE
FRONT ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING ENOUGH OF EXTRA LIFT TO PROVIDE A
SECONDARY, THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. DRY
AIR QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND, SO RAIN CHANCES CEASE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHOULD DRIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD FALL TO
0.5 INCH INLAND AND AROUND 0.75 INCHES AT THE COAST.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. GULF RETURN FLOW ARRIVING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH MODELS SHOWING RELATIVELY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A STEADY TRAIN OF SUBTLE SOUTHERLY
STREAM UPPER IMPULSES, THERE ISN'T A CLEAR WINDOW WHEN RAIN CHANCES
MAY BE MAXIMIZED OR MINIMIZED. THIS EXPLAINS THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MID-RANGE POPS (40-60 PERCENT) IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MUTED THIS WEEKEND AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND THE STRENGTH OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS MAY BE TOO
LIMITED. THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL ON MONDAY COULD LEAD TO BETTER
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING, AT LEAST UNTIL DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND MONDAY'S FRONT SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING
NEUTRAL. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE, TUESDAY MORNING'S
PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN +2C AND +5C ARE ALL BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR MAY 12TH AND SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY, AND AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR TO OPEN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHERE ANY
TERMINAL COULD COME DOWN TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL. GUSTS UP TO 20-
23 KTS START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z OR SO, LEVELING
OFF BY 21Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS START TO INFILTRATE NEAR KFLO
AND KLBT BY 12-14Z THIS MORNING, REACHING THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY
18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO REPRESENT POTENTIAL
TSRA DURING THE PRIME AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES START TO LEVEL
OFF THIS EVENING, BUT IFR CEILINGS COULD BECOME A CONCERN BETWEEN 00-
06Z TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, KFLO
AND KLBT COULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR RIGHT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
OF THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NNE AT 5 KTS OR
SO.
EXTENDED FORECAST...CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY, DUE
TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED
WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BECOMES A
FRESH BREEZE LATER THIS MORNING, EVEN UP TO A STRONG BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF
CITY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER TO SURF CITY OUT 20 NM THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEY APPEAR MORE CONVECTIVE THAN GRADIENT. THEREFORE,
CONTINUING TO HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL VEER
WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING, AND THEN QUICKLY TO THE NNE BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO, COMING BACK DOWN TO A MODERATE BREEZE. BY THIS AFTERNOON, SEAS
AT 2-4 FT INCREASE TO 3-5 FT WAVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, UP TO 5-
6 FT WAVES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE SEAS COME BACK DOWN TO 2-
4 FT EVERYWHERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... IN CONTRAST TO THE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WE EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT MOST OF APRIL, THE WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE A QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF FEBRUARY
OR MARCH. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BACK IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. WINDS SHOULD VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE, PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS,
HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS, PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANY STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE HANDLED BY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS RATHER THAN BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR GALE WARNINGS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/IGB
DISCUSSION...TRA/IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA/IGB
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